Projected market and financial information, analyses, and conclusions are based (unless sourced otherwise) on external information and Bain & Companys judgment. << /Filter /FlateDecode Subscribe to receive our Air Traffic Forecast in your inbox each month. The trade group expects 2019 passenger numbers to be surpassed in 2023 for Central America (102%), followed by South America in 2024 (103%), and the Caribbean in 2025 (101%). They are intended as a guide only and should not be construed as definitive forecasts or guarantees of future performance or results. 8 . App for '22 Release, Were making history by making our carbon history, Duty of Care Due Diligence Requires Wider Scope, Frankfurt Latest European Airport to Add Capacity Cap, Legacy OBT Suppliers Detail Long-Term Direction, Heathrow Adds Capacity Caps, European Airlines Restrict Sales, Buyers Look for TMC Relationship Restart Amid Recovery Stumbles, Delta to Hold Capacity at June Level through 2022, Sabre, Amadeus to Distribute Finnair NDC Content This Year, Marriott Data Breached Again in Single-Hotel Incident. Our experts carry out tailor-made traffic forecasting studies and reviews based on facts, analysis and benchmarks that address the needs of all players, ranging from airport operators, investors, capacity planners to governments. A full Northern Winter season waiver on the 80-20 use-it-or-lose it slot rule, for example, would provide critical relief to airlines in planning schedules amid unpredictable demand patterns. European tourism recovery to continue apace in 2022 ETC 2021 Q4 trends and prospects. 2019 levels should be recovered in 2025 (109%). Scientific advances in fighting COVID-19 including development of a successful vaccine, could allow a faster recovery.
Find out all that happened in Doha. IATA's new forecast was not negatively affected by the omicron variant as compared with its previous forecast in November, and this latest forecast does not take into account the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine, according to IATA. Recovery to pre-COVID-19 levels, however, will also slide by a year from 2022 to 2023. Access all press resources for this major event in aviation, Translations:Recuperao mais lenta enquanto as viagens internacionais continuam paradas (pdf)La recuperacin se retrasa ante el continuo bloqueo de los viajes internacionales (pdf)La reprise est retarde par linterdiction des voyages internationaux (pdf) (pdf). >> But IATA expects this number to improve to 83% this year, 94% in 2023, and 103% in 2024. Please see ourprivacy policyandcookies helppage for complete information. This was driven by rising demand in domestic markets, particularly China. Domestic traffic demand fell 67.6% in June, improved from a 78.4% decline in May. Rely on sound guidance for developing airport infrastructure that balances capacity with demand and efficiently meets user requirements while keeping up with evolving technology.
International Air Transport Association (IATA) 2022. /Pages 3 0 R >> Where Has British Airways Been Flying Its 'BA Better World' Airbus A320neo? We also use cookies for advertising purposes. 5 + C P D F) Access all press resources for this major event in aviation, Our traffic studies deliver prospective data on future passenger/cargo volumes and aircraft activity, and provide valuable recommendations to seize market opportunities and define winning strategies. Capacity fell 92.8%, and load factor dropped 53.8 percentage points to 34.1%. /F1 8 0 R
Passenger numbers to/from/within the Middle East are expected to reach 81% of 2019 levels this year, 98% in 2024, and 105% in 2025. 
m[[jwz1-Cu!!z0|nO/=>|=;&. "The impact on airline costs resulting from fluctuations in energy prices or rerouting to avoid Russian airspace could have broader implications. /Parent 3 0 R stream The earlier we know the slot rules the better, but we are still waiting for governments in key markets to confirm a waiver, said de Juniac. The outlook assumes that the war in Ukraine will not escalate beyond its borders. 30 0 R There is, however, downside risk should governments return to knee-jerk border-closing responses to future outbreaks.
Access all press resources for this major event in aviation, 9.7 (pdf), Recuperao de viagens coloca em perspectiva a lucratividade das companhias areas setor reduz perdas para US$ 9,7 bilhes (pdf), La recuperacin de los viajes areos reconstruye la rentabilidad de las aerolneas: una industria resistente reduce las prdidas a 9.700 millones USD (pdf). And when travel restrictions are lifted, they return to the skies. Acquire the new skills needed to meet the challenges of the road to recovery, from safety management to emergency planning and risk management. All rights reserved. We use cookies to give you the best experience on our website. Offer your customers the most accurate CO2 emissions data. "Sensitivity factors will include the geographic extent, severity, and time period for sanctions and/or airspace closures. People want to travel," says IATA's CEO, Willie Walsh. Ukraine ranked 48," IATA advises. 1 0 obj IATA (International Air Transport Association) represents some 290 airlines comprising 83% of global air traffic. KEEP READING, Get ready to tailor travel programs by leveraging NDC with your partners in 2022. That is only slightly improved from a 91.0% contraction in May. Geneva- The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released an updated global passenger forecast showing that the recovery in traffic has been slower than had been expected. /Outlines 2 0 R Border closures create economic pain but deliver little in terms of controlling the spread of the virus. Photo: Miami Dade Aviation Department, IATA is encouraged by the steady return of passengers to airports. What improvement we have seen has been domestic flying. Among the many negative impacts of an escalation for aviation, rising fuel costs and a dampening demand due to lowered consumer sentiment would be paramount. IATA projects that figure to reach 83 percent in 2022 and 94 percent in 2023. Please read and agree to the Privacy Policy. June international traffic shrank by 96.8% compared to June 2019, only slightly improved over a 98.3% decline in May, year-over-year. African airlines traffic sank 98.1% in June, little changed from a 98.6% demand drop in May. Capacity dropped 94.4% and load factor lessened 35.7 percentage points to 52.0%. IATA forecasts a strong 2022. Regarding Russia's invasion of Ukraine, IATA noted that "it is too early to estimate what the near-term consequences will be for aviation, but it is clear that there are downside risks, in particular in markets with exposure to the conflict." SAS & Pilots Union Show Signs Of Imminent Agreement, These Airline Passenger Habits Are The Absolute Worst. We were drawn to working with Oxford Economics for its solid reputation and the strength of its research, and weve been particularly impressed with your ability to present this to governments and the media its the reason wed look for future opportunities to work together., European Tourism 2021 Trends & Prospects (Q3/2021), Global Travel Highlights and Risks October 2021, Rebound in tourism aids the economic recovery in Europe, Air travel recovery to resume in 2022 post-Omicron. European carriers saw demand topple 96.7% in June versus a year ago, compared to a 98.7% decline in May. We help clients to understand how air passenger traffic will evolve in the short- and long-run and how current political and economic trends can affect growth rates. As the industry returns to more normal levels of production and with high fuel costs likely to stay for a while, profitability will depend on continued cost control. "In general, we are moving in the right direction, but there are some concerns," Walsh said. "The trajectory for the recovery in passenger numbers from Covid-19 was not changed by the omicron variant," IATA director general Willie Walsh said in a statement. Bookmark content that interests you and it will be saved here for you to read or share later. Total passenger numbers to/from/within Europe are expected to reach 86% of 2019 values this year, before making a full recovery in 2024 (105%). Acquire the new skills needed to meet the challenges of the road to recovery, from safety management to emergency planning and risk management. 7 0 obj Air traffic forecasts are the foundations of each stage of airports development. ]
Please select an industry from the dropdown list. >> Fly Net Zero is the commitment of airlines to achieve net zero carbon by 2050, bringing air transport in line with the Paris agreement to limit global warming to 1.5C. Photo: Don Wilson/Seattle-Tacoma Airport, United Airlines' 10 Busiest Airports This July, IATA: Industry Recovery Remains On Track Despite Omicron, Deadly Microburst: The Story Of USAir Flight 1016. /I3 17 0 R Consumer confidence is depressed and not helped by the UKs weekend decision to impose a blanket quarantine on all travelers returning from Spain. Forecasts of air passenger flows for almost 4,000 routes and total flows for 183 countries. There is still a long way to go to reach a normal state of affairs, but the forecast for the evolution in passenger numbers gives good reason to be optimistic.". 
Fly Net Zero is the commitment of airlines to achieve net zero carbon by 2050, bringing air transport in line with the Paris agreement to limit global warming to 1.5C. Qantas Perth Bound Boeing 737 Declares Fuel Mayday, Wizz Air Launches Waste Reduction Partnership With Sziget Festival, Airbus Bags Key Farnborough Order With LATAM Purchasing 17 A321neos & Endorsing The A321XLR, Connect Airlines Wins US Certification For Scheduled Passenger Flights, Nigeria's Aero Contractors Suspends Passenger Flights. Subscribe to Bain Insights, our monthly look at the critical issues facing global businesses. A wide range of clients subscribe to the Air Passenger Forecasts to support various business functions: The Air Passenger Forecast Service is the most comprehensive set of projections on how the airline industry will evolve in the coming years, where more passengers are expected to fly in the next fifteen years than over the past one hundred. Offer your customers the most accurate CO2 emissions data. Statistical data for nearly 4,000 country and region pairs, historical data from 2006, and 20-year forecasts including both annual and quarterly data frequency. We also use cookies for advertising purposes. Doha - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced an upgrade to its outlook for the airline industrys 2022 financial performance as the pace of recovery from the COVID-19 crisis quickens. The International Air Transport Association projects that overall air passenger numbers will reach 4 billion in 2024, about 103 percent of the pre-Covid-19 levels of 2019, the association reported Tuesday. Recuperao mais lenta enquanto as viagens internacionais continuam parada, La recuperacin se retrasa ante el continuo bloqueo de los viajes internacionales, La reprise est retarde par linterdiction des voyages internationaux, Recovery Delayed as International Travel Remains Locked Down. Home > Services > Subscription Services > Air Passenger Forecasts. Japans airlines saw improved domestic demand after the state of COVID-19 emergency was lifted in late May. Chinas domestic market alone accounted for about 10% of global traffic in 2019. However, our longer-term outlook for global air travel remains unchanged from the previous update (see panel 2). Industry revenues are expected to reach $782 billion (+54.5% on 2021), 93.3% of 2019 levels. CO2 Connect provides users with CO2 emissions calculations based on a best practice methodology. This is despite the Canadian airline market continuing to struggle. /MediaBox [0.000 0.000 612.000 792.000] Traffic, measures in RPK, fell 86.5% compared to the year-ago period. It incorporates airline data such as fuel burn, cabin design, and much more. >> In North America, passenger numbers will reach 94% of 2019 levels this year, with full recovery expected in 2023 (102%) - ahead of other regions. Overall expenses are expected to rise to $796 billion. It incorporates airline data such as fuel burn, cabin design, and much more. Total passenger traffic market shares by region of carriers in terms of RPK are: Asia-Pacific 34.6%, Europe 26.8%, North America 22.3%, Middle East 9.1%, Latin America 5.1%, and Africa 2.1%. Airport Development Reference Manual (ADRM), IATA Annual General Meeting & World Air Transport Summit. /Length 653 >> Recovery varies by region, however, with Asia-Pacific expected to continue to lag. At present, there are no circumstances where the human and economic costs of further COVID-19 border closures could be justified, said Walsh. It is a time for optimism, even if there are still challenges on costs, particularly fuel, and some lingering restrictions in a few key markets, said Willie Walsh, IATAs Director General. There is still a long way to go to reach a normal state of affairs, but the forecast for the evolution in passenger numbers gives good reason to be optimistic.". Andrew is based in Sydney. Historic figures are subject to revision. Revenues are rising as COVID-19 restrictions ease and people return to travel. Among the challenges: continued Covid-19 lockdowns in China, slashed global GDP forecasts, and the consequences of the war in Ukraine. And cargo is performing well against a backdrop of growing economic uncertainty. << Global passenger traffic (revenue passenger kilometers or RPKs) will not return to pre-COVID-19 levels until 2024, a year later than previously projected. The databank includes air passenger flows, economic and demographic data by country and regional aggregate data. The more pessimistic recovery outlook is based on a number of recent trends: Owing to these factors, IATAs revised baseline forecast is for global enplanements to fall 55% in 2020 compared to 2019 (the April forecast was for a 46% decline). 26 0 R The International Air Transport Association (IATA) is tipping airline passenger numbers will exceed 2019 levels in 2024. They need to keep sharply focused on meeting demand and not meeting slot rules that were never meant to accommodate the sharp fluctuations of a crisis. International Air Transport Association (IATA) 2022. Over the next few years, the intra-Europe market could benefit from preferences for short-haul travel. >> endobj That is a 44% increase on 2021, which reflects both the costs of supporting larger operations and the cost of inflation in some key items. We need to learn to manage the risks of living with COVID-19 with targeted and predictable measures that will safely re-build traveler confidence and shattered economies, said de Juniac. We are committed to protecting your right to privacy and ensuring the privacy and security of your personal information. North American carriers had a 97.2% traffic decline in June, barely improved from a 98.3% decline in May. In 2021, total traveler numbers were 47 percent of 2019 levels. Will overtourism problems return for cities? Our suppliers, including airports and air navigation service providers, need to be as focused on controlling costs as their customers to support the industrys recovery, said Walsh. /Font << 
Flights operated in 2022 are expected to total 33.8 million, which is 86.9% of 2019 levels (38.9 million flights). Detailed and comparable inbound and outbound travel intelligence for 300+ cities globally. Capacity fell 95.7% and load factor sagged 17.7 percentage points to 66.2%, which was the highest among the regions. The reduction in losses is the result of hard work to keep costs under control as the industry ramps up. In May 2020, we began making regular forecasts of how soon aviation demand would recover from the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, based on several potential scenarios and the latest information. All figures are provisional and represent total reporting at time of publication plus estimates for missing data. IATA is predicting global airline passenger traffic to exceed 2019 levels by 2024. Efficiency gains and improving yields are helping airlines to reduce losses even with rising labor and fuel costs (the latter driven by a +40% increase in the world oil price and a widening crack spread this year). 20 0 R The impact of the war in Ukraine on aviation pales compared with the unfolding humanitarian tragedy. IATA also sees potential for accurate, fast, scalable and affordable testing measures and comprehensive contact tracing to play a role in managing the risk of virus spread while re-connecting economies and re-starting travel and tourism. /I7 28 0 R Air traffic forecasts are the foundations of each stage of airports development. Inflation has risen and is expected to remain elevated throughout 2022, waning over the course of 2023. For airlines, this is bad news that points to the need for governments to continue with relief measuresfinancial and otherwise. Some 300 media attended the event in person. Meanwhile, since domestic markets are opening ahead of international markets, and because passengers appear to prefer short haul travel in the current environment, RPKs will recover more slowly, with passenger traffic expected to return to 2019 levels in 2024, one year later than previously forecast. And, while nominal interest rates are rising, real interest rates are expected to remain low or negative for a sustained period. /ProcSet 4 0 R By Geoffrey Weston, Allan Schulte, Derek Gerow, Yuriy Kurganov, and Rostislav Khomenko. /I9 33 0 R These impacts would be felt most severely in Russia, Ukraine, and neighboring areas. /MediaBox [0.000 0.000 612.000 792.000] Please note that trials are only available for qualified users. endobj Ride-hailing company Lyft has laid off 60 employees and is set to consolidate some regional Airlines Reporting Corp.-accredited travel agency air ticket sales for June 2022 totaled $7.9 billion, Corporate mobility specialist The Miles Consultancy plans to launch by year-end an app that will offer Were going beyond traditional carbon offsets and taking a more direct approach to making sustainable aviation the norm. The underlying demand for travel is strong. /I6 24 0 R CO2 Connect provides users with CO2 emissions calculations based on a best practice methodology. Governments must have learned their lessons from the COVID-19 crisis. Transaction Advisory ServicesLevel of Services (LoS). The international forecast is "slightly more optimistic" than the previous one, based on the relaxation or elimination of travel restrictions in many areas, particularly in major North Atlantic and intra-European markets, according to IATA. Passenger traffic to/from/within Asia-Pacific will only reach 68% of 2019 levels this year, the weakest outcome of the main regions. An earlier move away from Chinas zero COVID policy would, of course, improve the outlook for the industry. 2 0 obj IATA expects global passenger traffic to hit 103% of 2019 levels in 2024. /Kids [6 0 R But IATA also adds some impact is inevitable, particularly on that region's airlines. One notable shift in the global landscape is the link between Covid-19 infection rates and air traffic has become less linear; recently, infection rates have been rising in many countries, but travel volume (particularly inbound from other countries) now depends mostly on local Covid-19 policies. Consumer confidence and economic activity are likely to be impacted even outside of Eastern Europe.". Chinas carriers continued to lead the recovery, with traffic down 35.5% in June compared to the year-ago period, raised from a 46.3% decline in May. /I1 11 0 R
It is most important for North American airlines as it is about 66% of their operations. %PDF-1.3 IATA reports big improvements in the major North Atlantic and intra-European markets, strengthening the baseline for recovery, but says Asia-Pacific remains the global laggard. CO2 Connect provides users with CO2 emissions calculations based on a best practice methodology. Airlines are planning their schedules. Summer our industrys busiest season is passing by rapidly; with little chance for an upswing in international air travel unless governments move quickly and decisively to find alternatives to border closures, confidence-destroying stop-start re-openings and demand-killing quarantine, said de Juniac. But government responses to COVID-19 ignored World Health Organization advice that border closures are not an effective means of controlling the spread of a virus. Latin America is a global bright spot. "People want to travel. State-of-the-art, airlines-supported forecasts are key to defining appropriate future facility requirements, and to securing financing support from external investors. Including new Quarterly frequency of data.
There is downside risk to this outlook should inflation continue to rise, and central banks continue to hike interest rates. That is a huge improvement from losses of $137.7 billion (-36.0% net margin) in 2020 and $42.1 billion (-8.3% net margin) in 2021. Despite economic challenges, cargo volumes are expected to set a record high of 68.4 million tonnes in 2022. IATA projects passenger numbers to, from and within the region this year to reach 86 percent of 2019 levels, with a full recovery expected in 2024. However, at present there appears to be more downside risk than upside to the baseline forecast. Filter in or out as many as 200 cities, as well as hotel and car rental class and meals of the day and watch as the per-diem calculator automatically adjusts per diems to your program. Oxford Economics 2022 all rights reserved, Regulatory planning and scenario analysis, Influencing strategy and policy decisions, Measuring the sustainability of supply chains, Aviation, Maritime, Logistics and Transport, Technology, Telecoms, Media and Entertainment, Assess alternative future scenarios for strategy planning, Cross-reference and review your expectations, Plan and adjust investments in infrastructure, Lend expert support to financing requests, Inform transaction due diligence or broader consulting work. Passenger traffic hit bottom in April, but the strength of the upturn has been very weak. IATA statistics cover international and domestic scheduled air traffic for IATA member and non-member airlines. Complete the form below and we will contact you to set up your free trial. Top aviation leaders gathered in Doha, Qatar on 19-21 June for IATA AGM and World Air Transport Summit. Forecast highlights include: Airlines are resilient. InterContinental Times Square - New York City, etc.venues Monument - London, 26 September 2022. IATA notes air transport is resilient against shocks and says this conflict is unlikely to impact the long-term growth of air transport. Interest rates are rising as central banks combat inflation. /I10 34 0 R Rely on sound guidance for developing airport infrastructure that balances capacity with demand and efficiently meets user requirements while keeping up with evolving technology. All rights reserved. Financial performance in all regions is expected to improve in 2022 compared with 2021 (all regions improved in 2021 compared with 2020 as well). 14 0 R Meanwhile, the group forecast international traveler numbers, which for 2021 were 27 percent of 2019 levels, to reach 69 percent in 2022 and fully recover in 2025. 3 0 obj Passenger forecasts for the 4,000 most travelled air routes across the world. All of this points to a longer recovery period and more pain for the industry and the global economy, said Alexandre de Juniac, IATAs Director General and CEO. Country reports Africa's Astral Aviation Launch Operator For Embraer's E190F Freighter, AirBaltic Triples Its Passenger Activity In 1 Year, Malaysia Airlines Unveils Its New Boeing 737-800 Cabin, Established In The Interwar Period: The Story Of Canadian Airways, Breaking: Delta Air Lines Boosts Airbus A220 Order In Farnborough. A full recovery to 2019 levels is not expected until 2023, one year later than previously forecast. Advanced analytical functions Online Databank Several headwinds pushed our baseline recovery scenario for 2022 down from 73% to 71% of 2019 global revenue, with projected revenue for the year decreasing from $488 billion to $475 billion (see panel 1 above). Fly Net Zero is the commitment of airlines to achieve net zero carbon by 2050, bringing air transport in line with the Paris agreement to limit global warming to 1.5C. xm[o0WKDr{HI4}ivH2 |s1A nW_*$SEU!Dgj-0jFva1a`{hoZ4H$yh`J#k`4]g0:U.
We use cookies to give you the best experience on our website. Copyright 2022 Northstar Travel Media, LLC. Aside from those carrying debt (who will see inflation devaluing their debts), inflation is harmful and has the economic dampening effect of a tax by reducing purchasing power. The resulting localized lockdowns in its domestic market are depressing global passenger numbers even as other major markets like the U.S. are largely back to normal.". They say the continent will reach 76% of 2019 levels this year, surpassing pre-crisis levels only in 2025. 6 0 obj We use cookies to give you the best experience on our website. "When travel restrictions are lifted, they return to the skies. The effect on airline costs as a result of fluctuations in energy prices or rerouting to avoid Russian airspace could have broader implications. All rights reserved. Slow international traffic recovery across Asia-Pacific is hampering a wider recovery in that region. The Russia-Ukraine war and ongoing Covid-19 lockdowns in China continue to stymie global air traffic recovery. Asia-Pacific airlines June traffic plummeted 97.1% compared to the year-ago period, little improved from the 98.1% decline in May. /I2 12 0 R Latin American airlines suffered a 96.6% demand drop in June compared to the same month last year, from a 98.1% drop in May. /CreationDate (D:20220722081948+00'00') LATAM Eyes Venezuela Flights: Everything We Know. Find out all that happened in Doha. Drill down into cost breakdowns and export the results. IATA's 78th Annual General Meeting and World Air Transport Summit just ended in Doha, Qatar. /I5 23 0 R International Air Transport Association (IATA) 2022. And in many parts of the world infections are still rising. Domestic traffic improvements notwithstanding, international traffic, which in normal times accounts for close to two-thirds of global air travel, remains virtually non-existent. Moreover, the record strength of the US dollar, if it continues, will have a negative impact as a strong US dollar is growth dampening in general. The trade group says it is too early to determine near-term consequences. It increases the local-currency price of all USD-denominated debt, and adds to the burden of paying for USD-denominated fuel imports as well. Jointly created and updated by Tourism Economics and the International Air Transport Association. Domestic RPKs accounted for about 36% of the total market. endobj Middle Eastern airlines traffic collapsed 96.1% for June against June 2019, compared with a 97.7% demand drop in May. endobj /Resources << Losses will be cut to $9.7 billion this year and profitability is on the horizon for 2023. Pre-COVID-19, Russia was the 11th largest market for air transport services in terms of passenger numbers, including its large domestic market.