This paper is the second in a series that examines Russias approach to the Mediterranean. Greeces attractiveness to Russia arises from its geographic location, historic relations, religious ties, and a traditionally strong leftist movement. Turkey has not participated in sanctions imposed by the United States, the European Union and the United Kingdom against Russia, keeping its airspace open to Russian civilian airliners and maintaining trade and banking relations. If Putin wanted to weaken the EU, it is going almost in the opposite direction., Al Jazeera Centre for Public Liberties & Human Rights. 33 Helena Smith, Alexis Tsipras Calls Western Sanctions Against Russia 'Road to Nowhere', Guardian, March 31, 2015, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/mar/31/alexis-tsipras-greece-russia-relations. Turkey imports most of its energy and pays for it in dollars, but the country already suffers from 54 percent inflation the highest in 20 years due to Erdogans priority of maintaining low interest rates and cheap lending rates to businesses. The deeply conservative base that supports Erdoan resents Russias past military targeting of Muslims in the North Caucasus and carpet bombing of Sunni civilians in Syria. In sum, Russias capabilities in the Eastern Mediterranean are modest, based largely on symbolic diplomacy, energy, financial promises, and the ability to cultivate elites, some of which are quite eager to engage with Moscow for personal or political gain. While the Soviet Union and Turkey had developed a balanced trading relationship by the 1980s,4 Moscow had more limited success in cultivating the country on the cultural, political, and security fronts. The Soviet Union tried to stoke problems in the region to undermine NATO cohesion. 3 John Sakkas and Nataliya Zhukova, The Soviet Union, Turkey and the Cyprus Problem, 1967-1974, Les Cahiers Irice 1, no. 41 Philip Chrysopoulos, PAOK Owners Ties to Greek Government Fray, Greek Reporter, March 13, 2018, https://greekreporter.com/2018/03/13/paok-owners-ties-to-greek-government-fray/; Griff Witte, For Trump Adviser at Center of Russia Probe, a Rapid Rise and Dramatic Fall in His Ancestral Land, Washington Post, December 10, 2017, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/for-trump-adviser-at-center-of-russia-probe-a-rapid-rise-and-dramatic-fall-in-his-ancestral-land/2017/12/10/91bb696a-d390-11e7-9ad9-ca0619edfa05_story.html?utm_term=.90333815790a.
Greece is one of the most sought-after holiday destinations with Russians vacationers. He is certain the war will affect Greece directly. "Mariupol will become part of a list of cities that were completely destroyed by war; I don't need to name them they are Guernica, Coventry, Aleppo, Grozny, Leningrad.". 68 Jessica Bateman, Greek Election: Why Young Voters Are Turning Conservative, BBC, July 1, 2019 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-48798764. Kathimerini may send occasional special offers and promotions. Despite its promises of financial assistance, Moscow lacks the economic clout to help address Greeces decade-long financial crisis. 25 Ioannis Michaletos, Greek Military Acquisitions on the Rise, World Security Network, May 19, 2008, https://www.worldsecuritynetwork.com/Europe/ioannis-michaletos-1/Greek-Military-Acquisitions-on-the-Rise. Greece, they say, cant rely on the U.S. or NATO to oppose Turkish aggression, despite the governments decision. Cyprus Exits Bailout With Cash to Spare, CNBC, March 8, 2016, https://www.cnbc.com/2016/03/08/that-was-quick-cyprus-exits-bailout-with-cash-to-spare.html; VOA News Staff. Turkey is the only NATO member that hasnt joined the West on sanctions. Greece and Ukrainealso share a special bond in that Ukraine's besieged port city of Mariupol has been home to a large Greek community since the 18th century. Yet, Turkey complicates Russias ability to maintain a buffer zone and its strategic position in Eurasia. SIB (Cyprus) Limited. SBER. The Burgas-Alexandroupolis oil pipeline was to transport Russian oil from the Bulgarian Black Sea coast to the Aegean, but this project floundered when Bulgaria pulled out in 2011.20 The South Stream gas pipeline project was to cross Bulgaria into Greece, but violated the EU Third Energy Package and was canceled in 2014.21 Despite their failure, Greece remains an important market for Russian energy exports, which has created a stark trade imbalance.22 Russia accounts for just about 1 percent of total Greek exports.23 However, Greece is now hedging, seeking alternative sources of energy from Azerbaijan, Egypt, Iraq, the Levant, and beyond.24 With the advent of LNG, the discovery of new resources in the Mediterranean, and EU mandates on green energy, Russia will face increased competition. He also said that Turkey did close the Bosphorus strait to Russian warships in accordance with the Montreux Convention of 1936 that governs them. Russias assertiveness in the Eastern Mediterranean is part of its broader strategy for undermining the cohesion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the European Union (EU) and thus complicating the Western alliances ability to operate, plan, and formulate policy. This provoked a crisis in U.S.-Turkish relations and resulted in Turkeys expulsion from the F-35 fighter and Patriot missile programs. Today, pipelines via Turkey allow Russia gas deliveries to Southeastern Europe to skirt Ukraine. 1 Alina Polyakova, Markos Kounalakis, Antonis Klapsis, Luigi Sergio Germani, Jacopo Iacoboni, Francisco de Borja Lasheras, and Nicols de Pedro, The Kremlins Trojan Horses 2.0: Russian Influence in Greece, Italy, and Spain, Atlantic Council, November 2017, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/The_Kremlins_Trojan_Horses_2_web_1121.pdf. Each has in recent years experienced economic turmoil that provided Moscow with opportunities to cultivate politicians, gain financial leverage, and pursue economic opportunities, particularly in the energy sector. The West invoked ideological weapons to fight Putin international law, respect for borders, respect for sovereignty its a confirmation of international rules. Putin sees a like-minded counterpart in Erdoan. Once described as Moscows Trojan horse in Europe,1 Athens pivoted back sharply toward its European and NATO partners after the 2018 exposure of Russian attempts to interfere in Greek politics and to upend its rapprochement with North Macedonia. Russia has been courting Turkey in an apparent effort to weaken NATO, of which Turkey is a member. The Russia Strategic Initiative (RSI) is a U.S. Department of Defense organization that works with structures throughout the U.S. Government and with public and private think tanks around the world to develop a common understanding of Russian decision-making and way of war that supports the Coordinating Authoritys integration that leads to integrated planning, assessments, and action recommendations. In 2020, a court declared Golden Dawn a criminal organization and sentenced the partys founder and several others to prison terms for involvement in hate crimes and other misdeeds.49 Russias overreach with the Greek far right led to a downward spiral in relations. It wants a seat at any discussion of regional issues, but it is not necessarily able to bring solutions. Russias relations with Turkey are different. Yet, its influence operations over the past decade have led to Turkey, Greece, and Cyprus being labeled as weak links in NATO or the EU, especially on key issues of concern to Moscow: expansion of Western political and security organizations, EU sanctions, and the promotion of democracy and good governance. We feel for the Ukrainians this war is a politicians' war, it has nothing to do with normal people.". 29 Ahto Lobjakas and Martin Mlder, EU-Russia Watch 2012, University of Tartu, Centre for EU-Russia Studies, 2012, https://web.archive.org/web/20150107210114/http:/ceurus.ut.ee/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/EU-Russia-watch_1-20121.pdf. Greece can ill afford any diminution of the markets where it had been making significant gains up to the start of the pandemic. 47 Greek City Times Staff, Greece Ratifies Major Military Expansion With US, Greek City Times, January 31, 2020, https://greekcitytimes.com/2020/01/31/greece-ratifies-major-military-expansion-with-us/. The Greek Church backed the Constantinople patriarch in recognizing the independence of the UOC, leading to a public spat between the heads of the ROC and the Greek Orthodox Church in 2019.69 Despite ROC outreach, the Cypriot Church also recognized the independence of the UOC a year later. Energy costs are up 70 percent, and food and drinks have increased by 28 percent, says Halkiadakis. The sentiment is common. Greek society is not accustomed to such direct military interventions abroad. 
"How many lives have to be taken until Europe takes action?". Distribution and use of this material are governed by our Subscriber Agreement and by copyright law. Cyprus: Bailout Terms 'Painful' but Necessary, VOA, March 25, 2013, https://www.voanews.com/europe/cyprus-bailout-terms-painful-necessary. The Kremlins efforts to assert influence in these three countries are based on the Soviet playbook. Greek support for EU sanctions against Russia has also resulted in the loss of vital tourism revenue as Russian travelers rush to cancel their holidays. In-depth reporting, data and actionable intelligence for policy professionals all in one place. 35 Graeme Wearden and Julia Kollewe, Greek Referendum: No Campaign Storms to Victory With 61.31% of the Vote - as it Happened, Guardian, July 5, 2015, https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2015/jul/05/greeces-eurozone-future-in-the-balance-as-referendum-gets-under-way--eu-euro-bailout-live. Finally, Moscow is keen to stop the full integration of all the neighboring countries of Southeastern Europe with both NATO and the EU. Well-connected Russian oligarchs, including those under U.S. sanctions, used the program to gain an EU passport following limited due diligence from Cypriot authorities.64, A tourist passes a Russian-language billboard advertising luxury property for sale in Limassol, the center of the Russian expatriate community in Cyprus. (Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/Bloomberg via Getty Images), The scheme further boosted the Russian expatriate population in Cyprus, although not all Russians who own property or have citizenship actually reside there. 36 Phillip Inman and Jennifer Rankin, Tsipras Faces Clash With Syriza Radicals Opposed to Eurozone Bailout for Greece, Guardian, July 13, 2015, https://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jul/13/athens-and-eurozone-agree-bailout-deal-for-greece. The U.S. refusal to extradite the exiled Turkish cleric Fetullah Glen is a particular point of tension. Putin has taken advantage of this during his time in power, establishing a greater Russian presence in the Mediterranean and Middle East. Turkeys imports of Russian pipeline gas are falling,6 a trend that will likely continue as Ankara looks more toward liquefied natural gas (LNG), solar, wind, and other renewables.7 The country now imports LNG from the United States, Qatar, Algeria, Nigeria, and other countriesa development that could reduce Gazproms leverage in price negotiations.8, Although shifting markets likely will lessen Turkeys dependence on Russian gas, it is becoming more dependent on the Russian state nuclear energy company Rosatom, which is building the Akkuyu nuclear power plant in the country under a high-profile 2010 agreement. Ankara refuses to recognize Russias annexation of Crimea, advocates for the rights of Crimean Tatars, and provides diplomatic and military support to Ukraine, as seen in Erdoans high-profile meeting with Ukraines president in Istanbul in April and the sale of Turkish drones for use in eastern Ukraine against Russias proxies. The deaths of at least 10 Greeks in Mariupol, where a community of about 120,000 ethnic Greeks has existed since the 18th century, have caused intense anti-Russian feelings. 65 Cyprus Daily News Staff, Agents of Influence, Cyprus Daily News, September 25, 2019, https://cyprus-daily.news/agents-of-influence/. Cyprus has been a consistent buyer of Russian arms since the 1990s. Following Russia's war on Ukraine, however, Greece and all other EU states closed their airspace to Russian aircraft. Given the tensions between these states, the Eastern Mediterranean is a relatively easy place to try to achieve that. Regrets Aid to Junta in Cold War, Los Angeles Times, November 21, 1999, https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1999-nov-21-mn-35991-story.html. 
