Photo: Seda Grigoryan. Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are the authors own and not necessarily those of the U.S. government. Can Russia Be Trusted at Negotiation Tables? Its costs, challenges and the commitment to peace. On April 24, U.S. President Joseph R. Biden, Jr. recognized the 1915 mass killing and deportation of an estimated one million Armenians in Turkey as genocide. In reality, this fake support has failed as an anti-Russian mood can be seen in the society. It often seems, at least from the outside, that Belarus remains isolated from the West and very static in its transformation. Currently, Russia is not only the sole guarantor of security of Armenians living in Nagorno Karabakh, but also it protects parts of the Armenia Azerbaijan borders through the deployment of small military units in Ararat and Syunik provinces alongside the Armenia Nakhijevan and Armenia Azerbaijan borders. The Russia Georgia war in 2008 and Ukraine crisis in 2014 were the manifestations of Russian growing assertiveness and resentment over the post-Cold War European security architecture. Our societies are more polarised than ever before, which makes them more susceptible to disinformation, untruth and conspiracy theories. After the breakup of the Soviet Union, the independent Azerbaijan on the one side and Karabakh Armenians and independent Armenia on the other side went to war, leading to mass displacement and ethnic cleansing. However, while not irritating Russia, Yerevan should avoid complete rupture of its relations with the West. Pashinyans recent willingness to engage with Baku stoked fierce criticism from the political opposition, former members of his government, and the de facto authorities in Karabakh.
2301 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20037Tel: +1.202.457.1700, About April 12, 2022 - Late last year, Baku and Yerevan agreed to form a delimitation commission, established a hotline between their defense ministers, and began once again talking directly with each otherall small signs of progress. Late Zbigniew Brzezinski captured this moment in his seminal work The Grand chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives, arguing that Ukraine, a new and important space on the Eurasian chessboard, is a geopolitical pivot because its very existence as an independent country helps to transform Russia. The Armenian approach to the Russo-Ukrainian War can be viewed from different perspectives. Another side of the story is that the countrys silent majority is still upset about the fact that Armenians were left to fight the disastrous war in 2020 alone. Donate by clicking on the button below. The Summer 2018 issue of New Eastern Europe tackles the complexity of para-states in the post-Soviet space. Meanwhile, the vote against the resolution may put Armenia against the West. For the first time since the late Soviet period, the Armenians in Karabakh fear Yerevan no longer has their back, a perception that the opposition appears eager to play up. Perhaps the best solution here is not to participate in the voting at all. Ukraines EU Membership and the Geostrategy of Democratic Self-Preservation, Darkness Looms Over Ukraines Neighborhood. Russia since 2020 has used its role as a broker in the region to show up the United States, which lacked the means and desire to put boots on the ground. By: Since Russias invasion of Ukraine, the worlds attention has been justly focused on the war and the devastation inflicted on Ukrainian civilians. Protests are being organised in support of Ukraine and Ukrainians in various countries, such as the Netherlands, Germany, Luxembourg, Georgia, Poland and even in Russia. Turkey, for example, had closed its land border with Armenia due to the latters occupation of Azerbaijani territory, and most transportation links between the three countries shuttered in the 1990s. All Rights Reserved. Press Her areas of interest include EU-Neighbourhood relations, civic participation in developing countries and advocacy. - Russian actions created an acute crisis in West Russia relations. Projects Armenia has always enjoyed partner relations with the US and launched a strategic dialogue with the US in May 2019. There were several options available for Russia. This is especially true after the Second Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) War. The price of Europeanising the Balkans is much higher than the price of the Balkanisation of Europe, claims Zagreb-based writer Miljenko Jergovi in the opening essay to this issue of New Eastern Europe. Resolving territorial disputes is key to not only ending persistent violence and bloodshed, but also enabling these countries to assert their sovereignty and pursue their own foreign policies. Garibashvilis statements notwithstanding, the National Bank of Georgia indicated that it would not help Russia evade sanctions. - Grants & Fellowships The Kremlin might recognize the independence of Donetsk and Lugansk Peoples Republics within their current borders, covering only 30 percent of the territories of Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts. USIP expert analysis on Russia's war in Ukraine. One was led by the pro-western European Party of Armenia, which still has little influence in the political arena. Armenia is in an even more difficult position due to the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute. Dr. Benjamin Poghosyan is chairman of the Center for Political and economic strategic studies, Yerevan. Yet this progress has been accompanied by tension. At the same time, Azerbaijan has a historically strong relationship with Ukraine, which has voiced support for the integrity of Azerbaijans internationally recognized territory throughout the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Bill Taylor: Even if Russia annexes Ukrainian territory, No one will recognize this Russian claim - MSNBCs Andrea Mitchell Reports, Why Vladimir Putin is going to Iran - Grid. Kolegium Europy Wschodniej im. The war in Ukraine unfolds within the tectonic transformations in the world order. However, it is very difficult to expect that all Armenians will support these statements, as well as Ukraine as a state. Despite Russias treaty obligations to Armenia, it was Russian arms sales to Azerbaijan that helped Baku successfully capture territory in the 2020 war, and its Russia that has negotiated several cease-fires throughout the course of the decades-long conflict. On April 25, the Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers agreed to establish a mechanism to create the border delimitation commission. These soldiers violated the ceasefire, resulting in casualties and wounded. Whilst the country is still effectively at war with Azerbaijan, Russia remains its only strategic partner and is supposed to help against security threats. The Russo-Ukrainian War has left Armenia in a difficult situation. Russia plays an important role in the most volatile conflict in the region that between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh. Sign up to receive emails from Carnegies Russia and Eurasia Program! This is namely the closure of Ukrainian airspace. But diplomacy since the 2020 war has reopened the possibility for their restoration. This step probably will not be perceived by Russia as betrayal and will not anger the Kremlin, while it will not destroy the few bridges with the West. As the U.N. Security Council condemned Russias actions in Ukraine, Aliyevs actions appeared to indicate that Azerbaijan chose the Russian side in the conflict. Security and foreign policy consultant Sossi Tatikyan perfectly described the countrys approach, stating that Armenia mirrored the contradiction between professed values of democracy and human rights on one side and geopolitical economic and security interests on the other, which it witnessed among the international community during the 2020 Artsakh War.. Armenia developed its cooperation with NATO within Individual Partnership Action Plans (IPAPs), signing the first IPAP in 2005. Yerevan should not allow Azerbaijani and Turkish large-scale economic penetration in Armenia, especially in Syunik province, as Ankara and Baku do not hide their intentions to impose de facto, if not de jure control over the Syunik to unite the artificially separated Turkic world.. Valerii Pekar USIP has a variety of newsletters and announcements with the latest analysis, publications and events. Zelensky's challenges as his fate plays out on battlefield - Agence France Presse, Former ambassador: Ukrainians "happy" their first lady is visiting Washington and addressing Congress - CBS News, Amb. He has given his preliminary agreement to Bakus proposal, even accepting the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan with Nagorno-Karabakh inside of it, and has reportedly put the ball back in Bakus court to flesh out details, including the rights of Armenians inside Azerbaijan. This conflict directly affects Armenia and Azerbaijans behavior toward Russia. This issue is dedicated to the 10 year anniversary of the European Unions Eastern Partnership as well as the 30 years since the 1989 revolutions in Central Europe. Russia then deployed peacekeepers to Karabakh to guarantee the ceasefire it had brokered, provide for the safety of the two ethnic groups, and resolve disputes that arose between communities. The immediate consequence of the ruined Russia West relations will be the restricted flexibility of Armenia in its relations with the West. Now Russia also seems unable (or unwilling) to enforce the peace, with reports that Moscow no longer has a full contingent of peacekeepers deployed there, and the Minsk Group appears to be a casualty of the war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, under the leadership of President Vladimir Putin, Russia firmly believes that Russia should be one of the main pillars of the emerging multipolar world with the US and China. In addition, together with the Armenian civil society, Ukrainians, Russians and Belarusians in the country organised rallies and marches in Yerevan to show their solidarity with Ukraine. The March-April 2018 issue takes a deeper look at the consequences of Putins presidency and what could eventually come after. Time for the US and EU to hold Russia accountable, Petition for unwavering global support for Ukraine, Ukraine needs international support to stop this war. The agreement benefited Azerbaijan by committing the parties to build their relations on the basis of allied interaction, mutual respect for independence, state sovereignty, territorial integrity and inviolability of the state borders of the two countries.. On February 22, the day after Russian President Vladimir Putin recognized the independence of the breakaway Donetsk and Luhansk Peoples Republics in eastern Ukraine, Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev traveled to Moscow to sign an agreement increasing the two countries military and diplomatic cooperation. Of course, Armenia subsequently received intense criticism and even calls to be sanctioned together with Russia and Belarus. The conflicts over two separatist regions in Georgia are the root of this reaction. Attempts to negotiate a durable peace agreement by the United States, Russia, and France under the auspices of the OSCE Minsk Group were unsuccessful. Tatevik Hovhannisyan is a political scientist specialising in political communications and civil society affairs. Search for experts, projects, publications, courses, and more. The two countries leaders met in Brussels on April 6 and agreed to move rapidly toward reestablishing transportation links and a durable peace agreement.