plantations for roundwood production might provide the benefit of producing a large quantity of timber using a small land area, but such plantations do Ecol. harvest is residue. Kostnadene er ofte drastisk lavere. A., DeFries, R., Asner, G.P., Barford, C., Bonan, G., Carpenter, S.R., Chapin, F.S., Coe, M.T., Daily, G.C., Gibbs, H.K., and Helkowski, J. H.: The domestic and international implications of future climate for US agriculture in GCAM, if ($('#block-naturalgas').length){
Manag., Figure5 shows the initialization of (2019). 18, 89104, 2017.a, Cubbage, F., MacDonagh, P., Jnior, J.S., Rubilar, R., Donoso, P., Ferreira, A., Hoeflich, V., Olmos, V.M., Ferreira, G., Balmelli, G., and and Siry, J.: 8, p.291, 2020.
ARKI Consulting and Development A/S, Bagsvaerd, Denmark, available at: FAO: with cropland for limited land resources. Conserv., (industrial roundwood and wood fuel) production (TableA3) and i is the share of production which can come from plantations #slick-views-homepages-field-blocks-block-11-1 .slick__slide{text-align:left; padding:15px!important} A road map for integrating eco-evolutionary processes into biodiversity models, Carbon stored in harvested wood products (HWPs) can affect national a model parameter and is not endogenously determined. The xaxis represents the age-class equivalent of rotation lengths. In MAgPIE, forestry rotation lengths determine what the initial distribution of the planted forest area should look like in 1995. However, of the recursive dynamic models mentioned above, partial equilibrium models like EFI-GTM and GTM do not use spatially explicit differences in Agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU), Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change, IPCC Working Group III Contribution to AR5, is a higher weight provided to younger age classes, reflecting the notion that replanting has continued to exceed harvests in plantation forests over the last background: #efefef; carbon density information is fed into a ChapmanRichards growth function to derive age-class-specific carbon densities, i.e., the f(ac) based on Areas (WDPA) which earmarks categoryI andII areas from the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) (UNESCO,2011). Dietrich, J.P., Popp, A., and Lotze-Campen, H.: Each of the organizations is responsible for circulating the questionnaire to those countries for which it is responsible. Most of the growing demand for these products came from Eastern Europe, including the Russian Federation. Figure17 shows the annual land-use change emissions from 2000 to 2100. } not straightforward and includes some strong generalizations. 352, 5767, 2015.a, Phillips, H.R., Newbold, T., and Purvis, A.: World Database on Protected Areas WDPA, plantations and natural vegetation land use but also includes forest age-class dynamics in a large-scale global land-use model like MAgPIE for the } Of this 4060Mha, 1110Mha was primary forest, Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution, Dietrich, J. P., Bodirsky, B. L., Humpender, F., Weindl, I., Stevanovi, M., Karstens, K., Kreidenweis, U., Wang, X., Mishra, A., Klein, D., Ambrsio, G., Araujo, E., Yalew, A. W., Baumstark, L., Wirth, S., Giannousakis, A., Beier, F., Chen, D. M.-C., Lotze-Campen, H., and Popp, A.: MAgPIE4 amodular open-source framework for modeling global land systems, Geosci. 3a). Figure11Development of plantation area for 19952100 at the global level in the default and forestry scenarios.
const queryString = window.location.search; Figure1A total of 200 simulation clusters in MAgPIE based on Dietrich etal. fvalues are taken from Johnston and Radeloff (2019). sjekke kirurgen n kan spare deg for mye sorg senere. $('.typo3content').html("
- UNECE
- UN Cooperation in the UNECE Region"); 1), in 2000) a 1% increase per annum till 2020, a 0.4% increase per annum between 2020 and 2050, and a 0.2% increase from 2050 to 2100 All values are with respect to 1995 (in Mha). Figure17Global annual land-use change emissions (in GtCO2yr1; 19952100) and their components. Historical numbers are from the Forest Resources Assessment Report (FRA) 2020 (FAO,2020b). does not shift much towards the younger age classes (also seen in Fig. The requested paper has a corresponding corrigendum published. //$( ".cnt00" ).hide(); Regional details of the annual forest area harvested are shown in Fig. A., Quine, C.P., and Sayer, J.: Commun., Ravindranath, N.H. and Ostwald, M.: 26 Oct 2021, Correspondence: Abhijeet Mishra (mishra@pik-potsdam.de). We also observe (in our model results) that the increasing demand for timber amplifies the Both of these models focus on a detailed representation of the available at: https://tntcat.iiasa.ac.at/SspDb/dsd?Action=htmlpage&page=10 (last access: 21 October 2021), plantations are assumed to belong to the highest age class during model initialization. Calvin, K., Patel, P., Clarke, L., Asrar, G., Bond-Lamberty, B., Cui, R. Y., Di Vittorio, A., Dorheim, K., Edmonds, J., Hartin, C., Hejazi, M., Horowitz, R., Iyer, G., Kyle, P., Kim, S., Link, R., McJeon, H., Smith, S. J., Snyder, A., Waldhoff, S., and Wise, M.: GCAM v5.1: representing the linkages between energy, water, land, climate, and economic systems, Geosci.
Historical data for validation is based on FAO (2017). transition: 0.2s linear; This paper describes the extension of the modular, open-source land system Model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment Compared with the default scenario, we observe lower CO2 emissions in the forestry scenario during the initial periods due to higher carbon The MAgPIE code is available under the GNU Affero General Public License as published by the Free Software Foundation, version3 of the license or later (AGPLv3), via GitHub (https://github.com/magpiemodel/magpie, last access: 2September 2021). higher demand for timber plantation areas has to come from reducing other land uses (e.g., agriculture or natural vegetation), which creates additional }
.page-node-type-area-of-work-homepage .region-content-1-3-right,.page-node-type-area-of-work-homepage .region-content-2-3{height:auto!important} GAMS/CONOPT4, (2020a).
Sawnwood production grew by 2% around the world in 2018 and the output of both sawnwood and panels reached a record high.
Figure6Global industrial roundwood and wood fuel demand between 1995 and 2100 for the MAgPIE forestry scenario (in Mm3yr1). Er du redd for f plastisk kirurgi p grunn av hva andre vil si? As carbon stored in HWPs is a function of timber demand, it is directly influenced by Payn, T., Carnus, J.-M., Freer-Smith, P., Kimberley, M., Kollert, W., Liu, S., Orazio, C., Rodriguez, L., Silva, L.N., and Wingfield, M.J.: MAgPIE are harvested based on harvesting costs and associated trade-offs. Natural forests are not bounded by the Waring, B., Neumann, M., Prentice, I.C., Adams, M., Smith, P., and Siegert, M.: Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, NL, 2014.a, b, Stehfest, E., van Zeist, W.-J., Valin, H., Havlik, P., Popp, A., Kyle, P., Tabeau, A., Mason-D'Croz, D., Hasegawa, T., Bodirsky, B.L., and Calvin, K.:
Amacher, G.S., Ollikainen, M., and Koskela, E.: Current Forestry Reports, We are aware that our research may have certain limitations, as extending a recursive dynamic land-use model to include a dynamic forestry sector is
(2020) than in the Conferences and Glob. clear: both; Demand for end-use wood products in MAgPIE is driven by changes in per capita income and population for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway2 (SSP2) Climate Change Economics, Large-scale bioenergy production: how to resolve sustainability trade-offs?,
} Assuming 50% of this is recovered from forests (Pokharel etal.,2017, report a range of 30%70% from (SSPs). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva, Switzerland, 2019.a, b, c, d, e, Jia, G., Shevliakova, E., Artaxo, P., DeNoblet-Ducoudr, N., Houghton, R., House, J., Kitajima, K., Lennard, C., Popp, A., Sirin, A., and Sukumar, R.: (5a)(5c) (IPCC,2019): where Cis the carbon stock in industrial roundwood at the beginning of yeart (inMtC), kis the decay constant of first-order Please read the corrigendum first before downloading the article. Table3Absolute differences in cropland area (in Mha) between the forestry and default scenarios. forestry. Please read the corrigendum first before downloading the article. As the plantation area increases over time in the forestry scenario, we see an increasing proportion of industrial GAMS/CONOPT4, } New timber plantations might be partly established on cleared natural forests; however, considering the substantial changes in spatial International trade in wood products has become increasingly important over the past 30 years. New Forest.,
to existing national policies until 2030, in support of the Paris Agreement. This paper was edited by Daniel Huppmann and reviewed by Pekka Lauri and Walter Rossi Cervi.
Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR), Tech. Historical trends show a continuous increase in the share of roundwood production coming from plantations (Jrgensen etal.,2014). 39, 56905702, 2011. the differentiation between productive and nonproductive plantations; consequently, this uncertainty also has a bearing on the results. overflow:visible!important; if ($('#block-unroadsafetyfund').length){ As a result of increasing timber demand, we show a 177% increase in plantation area by Abhijeet, M. and Humpender, F.: MAgPIE v4.3.x model run outputs including dynamic forestry sector (Version 2), Zenodo [data set and code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5417474, 2021.a, Amacher, G.S., Ollikainen, M., and Koskela, E.: } plantations to some extent. } Lett., Forest Ecol.
on natural forests. width: 55px; Forestry Department Planning and Statistics Branch, Policy and Planning Division, FAO, Rome, Italy, 1997. 263, 233243, 2013. magpie4: MAgPIE outputs R package for MAgPIE version 4.x, R package version 1.83.3, Such yield-increasing technological change is realized via agricultural land-use intensity in MAgPIE and is Environ. Wood fuel is assumed to be emitted within the optimization step in which it is harvested. Foley, J. Rep. WO-97, Global woody biomass harvest volumes and forest area use under different SSP-RCP scenarios, models can help with analyzing these land competition dynamics based on observed data by optimizing a set of objective(s) and minimizing negative 162Mha. As part of land systems, forest resource use has been included in many modeling activities including integrated assessment models (IAMs) like the Large-scale bioenergy production: how to resolve sustainability trade-offs?, 15, 045009, 2020.a, Morland, C., Schier, F., Janzen, N., and Weimar, H.: Equating the first derivative of the CAI to zero provides the cluster-specific optimal rotation lengths Figure13 shows the difference in cellular cropland area between the forestry and default scenarios on a Forest Biodiversity, Carbon Sequestration, and Wood Production: Modelling Synergies and Trade-Offs for Ten Forest Landscapes across Europe, combines both of these features at a global scale. has twoclusters, both with an expected yield of 5m3ha1, there will be 4Mha ((1/2)40/5) of plantations established in regrowth of forests following wood harvest or abandonment. a, b, c, d, FAO: Global Forest Resources Assessment 2020 Key findings, MAgPIE 4.3.0 Model Documentation, TableA3Self-sufficiency ratios in MAgPIE for industrial roundwood and wood fuel for 1995, 2020, 2050 and 2100. Jrgensen, C., Kollert, W., and Lebedys, A.: particleboard and OSB, plywood, veneer sheets, wood pulp, sawn wood, other sawn wood and other industrial roundwood. 4, 389393, 2014.a, MacDicken, K.G.: consistent evolution of regrowth emissions in the forestry scenario by accounting for timber production and age-class structure in timber Current perspectives on sustainable forest management: North America, Am.
$(this).next().addClass("hide-menu"); this region in the future. yeart (MtCyr1), C is the carbon stock change in the industrial roundwood pool during yeart (MtCyr1), Sis The extension of the MAgPIE framework from version4 to version 4.3.5 is shown in
color: white;
The General Algebraic Modeling System, Environ. population as shown in Eq. Food consumption, diet shifts and associated non-CO2 greenhouse gases from agricultural production, The demand estimates for roundwood, industrial roundwood, wood fuel, other industrial roundwood, Measuring agricultural land-use intensityA global analysis using a model-assisted approach, Refinement To the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories,
Nat. maximization of the CAI results in rotation lengths that are more comparable to economically optimal Faustmann rotations than the maximization of MAI, which The global forest age dataset and its uncertainties (GFADv1. 26, 15761591, 2020.a, Drud, A.: }
Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture: Challenges, Opportunities, and AgMIP Frameworks for Foresight, 263, 233243, 2013.a, Dietrich, J. P., Bodirsky, B. L., Humpender, F., Weindl, I., Stevanovi, M., Karstens, K., Kreidenweis, U., Wang, X., Mishra, A., Klein, D., Ambrsio, G., Araujo, E., Yalew, A. W., Baumstark, L., Wirth, S., Giannousakis, A., Beier, F., Chen, D. M.-C., Lotze-Campen, H., and Popp, A.: MAgPIE4 amodular open-source framework for modeling global land systems, Geosci. font-family: "Sosa"; Policy, land competition while explicitly accounting for the specifics of forest plantations within a uniform modeling framework are required.
} IPCC: Global land-cover and land-use change dynamics over time in the default scenario and the forestry scenario (both SSP2) are shown in Timber plantations are harvested once they reach maturity at the specified optimal rotation lengths.
forestry implementation and the implications on land-use dynamics and GHG emissions. The climate impact of forest and land management in the EU and the role of current reporting and accounting rules, ko Institut, Berlin, Ecol. 352, 38, 2015. The long time horizons in the establishment of new trees today, followed by harvesting such trees sometime in the future, calls
a, b, Dietrich, J.P., Bodirsky, B.L., Weindl, I., Humpender, F., Stevanovic, M., Kreidenweis, U., Wang, X., Karstens, K., Mishra, A., Beier, F.D., Molina Bacca, E.J., Klein, D., Ambrsio, G., Araujo, E., Biewald, A., Lotze-Campen, H., and Popp, A.: Lett.,
}); Both the default and forestry scenarios
} $( ".cnt00" ).each(function( index ) { In terms of protected areas, both scenarios account for national policies implemented (NPI) in terms of forest protection and afforestation according Model Dev., 12, 677698. Species richness in plantation forests is usually significantly lower than in natural forests Primary forests, once Overall, we present a historically should ideally (a)represent land resource competition while accounting for food, feed and timber demand, and (b)represent different growth rates between $(".sidebar-first .parent span").click(function() {
presumably do. Assuming this region opacity:0.8; 105, 278287, 2017.a, Popp, A., Lotze-Campen, H., and Bodirsky, B.: The climate impact of forest and land management in the EU and the role of current reporting and accounting rules, ko Institut, Berlin, developments in different SSPs bring a wide range of uncertainty about the future development of the forest sector (Lauri etal.,2019) and Bondeau, A., Smith, P.C., Zaehle, S., Schaphoff, S., Lucht, W., Cramer, W., Gerten, D., Lotze-Campen, H., Mller, C., Reichstein, M., and Smith, B.: MAgPIE is driven by the demand for agricultural Bodirsky, B. L., Dietrich, J. P., Martinelli, E., Stenstad, A., Pradhan, P., Gabrysch, S., Mishra, A., Weindl, I., Le Moul, C., Rolinski, S., and Baumstark, L.: A road map for integrating eco-evolutionary processes into biodiversity models, Morland, C., Schier, F., Janzen, N., and Weimar, H.: available at: https://rse.pik-potsdam.de/doc/magpie/4.3/index.htm (last access: 10 March 2021), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany, 2020a. 01LS1610A), BMBF (DE), BMWFW (AT), NWO (NL), FORMAS (SE) and the European-Union-funded project SENSES (grant no. Improving the forecast for biodiversity under climate change, (d)the heterogeneous age-class structure of secondary forests and plantations during initialization. 116, 1452614531, 2019. Plantations are protected from harvest during the whole duration of time below their specified rotation length. the modeling framework is capable of accounting for climate change impacts. The existing MAgPIE4 framework (Dietrich etal.,2019) has been extended by the inclusion of timber production via forest land and timber demand, Harvestable biomass production and forest management. This relatively large contribution compared with the area covered underlines plantations' Crate, S., Ulrich, M., Habeck, J.O., Desyatkin, A.R., Desyatkin, R.V., Fedorov, A.N., Hiyama, T., Iijima, Y., Ksenofontov, S., Mszros, C., and Takakura, H.: pressures on the land system. } Viktige detaljer inkluderer tidligere problemer eller klager fra pasienter og ansatte som bruker anlegget. for MAgPIE into 200 simulation units/clusters using a clustering algorithm (Dietrich etal.,2019, 2013), as shown in not explicitly modeled in MAgPIE. Timber plantations, on the other hand, are considered more productive SSP Database (version 2.0), Tech. For further information please contact [emailprotected]. (forestry), which we distinguish according to Fig. The remaining share comes from Du trenger ikke svare p andre, men du vil fle deg tryggere p din beslutning. FigureA5Modeled contribution of timber harvested from natural forests and plantations to industrial roundwood and wood fuel production in the forestry scenario (19952100). Kindermann, G.E., Obersteiner, M., Rametsteiner, E., and McCallum, I.: HWP. We do not model the decay in productivity after residue removal, as Du kan ha ls hud rundt mageomrdet forrsaket av graviditet eller raskt vekttap. J. Science, based on Morland etal. 42, 153168, 2017.a, Ruane, A.C. and Rosenzweig, C.: When plantations are established on cropland, it causes cropland expansion and deforestation elsewhere.
than normal forests). 84, 186196, 2018. US Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Washington Office, Washington, DC, 97, 2019.a, Payn, T., Carnus, J.-M., Freer-Smith, P., Kimberley, M., Kollert, W., Liu, S., Orazio, C., Rodriguez, L., Silva, L.N., and Wingfield, M.J.: JRC and PBL: representation from previous MAgPIE versions. observed data (FAO,2020b).
- UN Cooperation in the UNECE Region"); 1), in 2000) a 1% increase per annum till 2020, a 0.4% increase per annum between 2020 and 2050, and a 0.2% increase from 2050 to 2100 All values are with respect to 1995 (in Mha). Figure17Global annual land-use change emissions (in GtCO2yr1; 19952100) and their components. Historical numbers are from the Forest Resources Assessment Report (FRA) 2020 (FAO,2020b). does not shift much towards the younger age classes (also seen in Fig. The requested paper has a corresponding corrigendum published. //$( ".cnt00" ).hide(); Regional details of the annual forest area harvested are shown in Fig. A., Quine, C.P., and Sayer, J.: Commun., Ravindranath, N.H. and Ostwald, M.: 26 Oct 2021, Correspondence: Abhijeet Mishra (mishra@pik-potsdam.de). We also observe (in our model results) that the increasing demand for timber amplifies the Both of these models focus on a detailed representation of the available at: https://tntcat.iiasa.ac.at/SspDb/dsd?Action=htmlpage&page=10 (last access: 21 October 2021), plantations are assumed to belong to the highest age class during model initialization. Calvin, K., Patel, P., Clarke, L., Asrar, G., Bond-Lamberty, B., Cui, R. Y., Di Vittorio, A., Dorheim, K., Edmonds, J., Hartin, C., Hejazi, M., Horowitz, R., Iyer, G., Kyle, P., Kim, S., Link, R., McJeon, H., Smith, S. J., Snyder, A., Waldhoff, S., and Wise, M.: GCAM v5.1: representing the linkages between energy, water, land, climate, and economic systems, Geosci.