, Increases in productivity allow for lower ratios among wages, productivity and lower prices and consequently better competitiveness, which promotes external demand. In these figures, global spatial autocorrelation is assessed directly through Morans I statistics that is expected to assume values between 0 and 1 (for negative spatial correlation in each variable) and 0 and 1 (for positive spatial correlation). , Ma, F. Empirical evidence on real convergence in some OECD countries. After the pandemic, it will be important that the European Union institutions consider Eastern and Central countries, such as Romania, Lithuania and Latvia, when implementing strategies for GDP per capita growth that may be spread to neighbouring countries and promote convergence processes. da Pitta, M. G. d. R.

With a population of 17.6 million, the region today boasts a combined gross domestic product (GDP) of close to EUR 100 billion, an average GDP per capita of about EUR 5 400 and a comprehensive process of integration with the European Union. , , & , & Anselin, L. , & (2006). Cunado, J. (2006). Regional Science Policy & Practice, 118. , & Abel, G. J. Learn more The data analysis reveals that the United States, Korea and some countries from the European Union (Ireland, Romania, Hungary, Lithuania, Poland, Bulgaria, Latvia, Estonia, Slovak Republic, Portugal, Slovenia, Denmark and the Czech Republic) were the leading countries, in terms of GDP per capita growth rates on average, before the pandemic. Syabri, I. The spatial economy: Cities, regions, and international trade. Nonetheless, the Central and East European countries may play a determinant role in the global convergence process, within the European Union framework (Stanisic et al.,2018). [2] Countries are ranked by their estimated 2021 figures. (2011). These data were analysed through panel data regressions (Islam,1995), considering spatial autocorrelation effects also following Stata (Stata,2021; StataCorp,2017a; StataCorp,2017b) procedures. (2013). Uddin, S. M. J. Considering only the OECD countries (Figures3 and and4),4), the results for the spatial autocorrelation are even weaker because of, for example, the absence of the effect from Romania which was verified, in Figure2, to be a cluster with positive local spatial correlation for higher values of the GDP per capita growth rates.

Interregional migration within the European Union in the aftermath of the Eastern enlargements: A spatial approach, Review of Regional ResearchJahrbuch Fur Regionalwissenschaft, Labor market and unpaid works implications of COVID19 for Bangladeshi women. Results from the conditional convergence model, for GDP per capita, with panel data and spatial effects over the period 2017q42020q3 and across OECD countries plus the four nonmember states. Request Permissions, Jalal El Ouardighi and Rabija Somun-Kapetanovic. We show how the concept of pro-poor growth in income per capita can be applied easily to a set of economies in the course of growth. Martinho, V. J. P. D. official website and that any information you provide is encrypted , & Geographical distribution of unemployment: An analysis of provincial differences in Italy. , Niwas, R. It builds on an extensive peer-learning process that brought together experts from across the region and beyond. Shahul, A. Democracy and economic growth in an interdependent world. The new PMC design is here! Income and educational inequalities in the regions of the European Union: Geographical spillovers under welfare state restrictions, Fattori che regolano lo sviluppo della produttivit del lavoro. , & The Hausman test shows the preference for fixed effects before the pandemic. Vallone, A. Salvati, L. Fiorio, C. , & Roberts, M. In fact, these countries are determinants for international geostrategy and the creation of measures by the European Union institutions and international organizations. The main objective of the European structural support is to promote faster growth for poorer regions, and it seems that there have been some interesting signs of this, in recent years, from Eastern Europe. The results show that many episodes of growth are not pro-poor because poverty and inequality worsen between Balkan countries. , & Socioeconomic conditions will be some of the main challenges during and after this pandemic (Abel & GietelBasten,2020), particularly those relating to gender inequality (Sarker,2021). For spatial autocorrelation analysis, procedures from the GeoDa (Anselin et al.,2006; GeoDa,2021) software were considered. Molinas, C. (2008). Manufacturing is considered to be the engine of economic growth, with increasing returns to scale, generating spillover effects for the other economic sectors. Venables, A. J. Martinho, V. J. P. D. , These spatial implications for the period 20172020 are greater when including Bulgaria, Costa Rica, Romania and Saudi Arabia. These new contexts are real opportunities to redesign and think about newer, more sustainable and adjusted paradigms for climate change and global warming. The SA highlights the role of geography in these processes (Le Gallo,2004) and in economic performance (Patacchini & Rice,2007). Luman, E. T. (2020). (2020). The regions location, its deep relationships with Europe and its academic tradition present many opportunities for future development, especially at a time when distances are shrinking further with digitalisation. Domenech, R. In general, explanations concerning these processes are based on the Verdoorn and Kaldor laws (Kaldor,1966; Kaldor,1984; Verdoorn,1949), considering developments from the Keynesian theory. Beyond practical and financial constraints, future solutions must address considerable institutional and governance challenges that remain across the region.Press release:Quality education is top priority for people in the Western Balkans. In convergence frameworks, countries with a weaker economic performance catch up and converge to the level of income of those which are more dynamic. This report provides multi-dimensional assessments across the economic, social, finance, governance and environmental pillars of sustainable development for five economies of the region. Although economic reforms seem to have a positive effect on well-being in Balkan countries, the overall effect on growth has been small for most countries. Mosqueda, M. T. This article is being made freely available through PubMed Central as part of the COVID-19 public health emergency response. GomezZaldivar, M. Liu, R. Yan, Y. Beyond practical and financial constraints, future solutions must address considerable institutional and governance challenges that remain across the region. , & Nonetheless, the current context relative to the Covid19 pandemic has brought new challenges and changed the paradigms that have been in place in recent decades. PMC legacy view At this time, the process starts again, through circular and cumulative phenomena. , These processes, with constant or decreasing returns to scale, are characterized by having input supply and technical progress that are exogenous and freely available in poorer countries, allowing for frameworks of catching up. Read your article online and download the PDF from your email or your account. Conditional income convergence in the European Union: R&d spending and export influence, Transformations in Business and Economics, Testing for catchingup periods in timeseries convergence, Comparing data sources of real GDP in purchasing power parities.

Montorsi, C. Early trends of socioeconomic and health indicators influencing case fatality rate of COVID19 pandemic. Wang, S.

Estimation of the spatial weights matrix under structural constraints, The spatial distribution of personal insolvencies in England and Wales, 20002007. The socioeconomic dynamics created over recent years, between the quarters of 2017 and 2019, showed interesting evidence of convergence among the OECD countries, where some Central and Eastern European Countries (including the nonmember Romania) may play a relevant role in European Union development. GDP per capita and productivity are variables considered by many studies related to the analysis of convergence. (2020). Royuela, V. , & In any case, during the pandemic and in the future, it could be important to design specific policy instruments for the economies which were more susceptible to the impacts of Covid19, such as the four nonmembers OECD countries considered in this research. A spatial model estimation, Economic Computation and Economic Cybernetics Studies and Research. Several countries, in the European Union, were implementing efforts to improve their economic performance and to achieve the targets designated by European institutions. Banerjee, S. These figures show the global and local spatial autocorrelation for the GDP per capita growth rates on average over the final quarter of 2017 to the third quarter of 2020 for the OECD countries plus Bulgaria, Costa Rica, Romania and Saudi Arabia. (2020). Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. , Making the most of this potential will require collaboration in tackling challenges, which have been further exposed during the COVID-19 pandemic. , & Indeed, there are groups of countries in the European Union which have implemented great effort, over a number of years, to achieve the goals proposed by international and European institutions who now see their situations being brought back to the start or, in some cases, worse. RabieiDastjerdi, H. Select the purchase New estimates of returns to scale and spatial spillovers for EU regional manufacturing, 19862002. The processes of economic integration (the European Union, for example) and the creation of international organizations (World Trade Organization, for instance) are illustrations of these preoccupations and ways of dealing with these new tasks (Gostomski & Michalowski,2015). Pan, X. Li, Q.

Figures9 and and1010 for sigma convergence measured through the coefficient of variation reveal that there are signs of convergence over the final quarter of 2017 to the first quarter of 2019 for the OECD countries, with or without Bulgaria, Costa Rica, Romania and Saudi Arabia.