behavioral economics seminar In an experiment, we demonstrate these features of the new tool for risk and extend it to ambiguity; we find a median value of lambda= 1 at the aggregate level for both sources of uncertainty. In this paper, we develop a new method to identify favors and information from data on hiring. The model permits an array of costs associated with restocking, understocking, depreciation, financing, and holding inventories. Job insecurity has consequences outside of the labour market. Members of the same group have either low or high external marginal returns. Voters may lack information on politicians' wrongdoings, and electoral institutions may make it hard for them to remove corrupt politicians from office. Listserv/Announcements:, NO MEETING THIS WEEK (First week of semester), "Smart Matching Platforms and Heterogeneous Beliefs in Centralized School Choice", Colin Camerer, California Institute of Technology, "Decision Weights for Experimental Asset Prices Based on Visual Salience", "Interpreting the Will of the People: A Positive Analysis of Ordinal Preference Aggregation", "How Flexible is that Functional Form?

However, there is growing evidence that cognitive, emotional and visceral states (e.g. Running a controlled laboratory experiment we find support for this prediction. In the context of a canonical social interactions model, we provide sufficient conditions under which the social interactions matrix, endogenous and exogenous social effect parameters are all globally identified. Attempts at identifiying both effects have generally relied on productivity measures collected after hiring. These findings complement a literature showing that commitment devices induce financial discipline. Our analysis shows that the gender of these marginal successful applicants has long-term consequences on the gender composition of the department, the number of male and female PhD students, and their research topics. Subjects also shifted to the right on policy questions. Meanwhile a greater feeling of job security does not translate into a higher level of self-assessed health. The experiment is designed so that bonds have a constant fundamental value which is not affected by QE under rational expectations. We use a novel method to elicit incentivized beliefs from a sample of 13,900 Americans about how taxes affect peoples effort choices, and we elicit incentivized equalityefficiency preferences. nous. However, there is little direct causal evidence for this effect. We conduct an artefactual field experiment to incorporate different risk taking measures within the Innovation Panel (IP) of the UK Household Longitudinal Survey (UKHLS). One solution is to only impose a respect We present a multi-modal database for the analysis of human emotional states in the dynamic context of game. We consider the situation of a primary care physician (PCP) deciding on the provision of information of varying qualities to a specialist while referring a patient. This paper is a cross-national study of physical pain over the business cycle. In this paper we use panel data for the US to examine to what extent these two different norms interact. strong predictor of compliance. This decreases the stigma associated with anti-minority expression, increasing public opposition to minority groups. Football is the national sport of most of the planet. These results Using the 2016 merger of French regions as a natural experiment, this paper adopts a difference-in-difference identification strategy to recover its causal impact on individual subjective well-being. His response was to persuade himself that his original preferences were erroneous. By studying a model, where both party entry and platform choice are endogenous, we are able to provide a unified theory: An increasing electoral rule disproportionality exhibits: a) a first-order negative effect on platform polarization, b) a second-order negative effect on the number of parties (as polarization decreases, centrist parties are squeezed between other contenders and prefer not to enter), and c) an additional third-order negative effect on polarization via the reduction of the number of parties. Is there a connection between these observations? This paper provides a novel explanation for this puzzle: investment reduces the investor's need for informal risk sharing, weakening risk-sharing ties, and so limiting the amount of borrowing that can be sustained. The secular increase in the C-section rate is largely accounted for by observable characteristics of births, mothers and health care systems. The economic implications are discussed. Many countries suffer from severe droughts, and it is predicted that they'll become more frequent with forecasted changes in climatic conditions. in England received substantial sums they could invest over a six-week period. The large increase in suicides and the small changes in healthcare use suggest that mentally unwell agricultural workers are not receiving the treatment they need. We study whether bonus payments for information provision can improve the information flow between physicians. Thus, advanced knowledge of players' strategic capabilities or goals considerably simplifies the strategic analysis by inducing a categorization of games. Transport has significant externalities including carbon emissions and air pollution. This effect persists three years after the intervention for the first intervention, but fades away for the second. By contrast, putting trust in government generates The treatment systematically shifted vote choices towards parties more supportive of the peace process. Can participation in financial markets lead individuals to re-evaluate the costs of conflict, change their political attitudes and even their votes?

oretical channels of in It allows evaluating separately the causal impact of exogenous gains and losses in job security on workers' health. Taken together, we find little evidence of increased sleep causing impacts on short- and medium-run economic outcomes that could be easily discernible by individuals, thus providing a possible explanation for the persistence of widespread sleep deprivation found in many settings. Across highly diverse cultural, socioeconomic, political, and environmental contexts, people structured their identities to view themselves as: accepted by others (belonging), positively valued (positive self-regard), distinguished from others (distinctiveness), persisting through time (continuity), competent and capable (efficacy), and having a life that matters (meaning). In some societies, not vaccinating is an increasingly prevalent behavior, due to deleterious side effects that parents believe may accompany vaccination. To the extent that patients are in poor health and there is significant negative or positive state dependence, the marginal utility of income will not be equivalent to that of the average taxpayer, and thus, derivation of societal net benefits will be biased. Investment in stocks led participants to adopt a more At the conceptual level the studys findings are consistent with an important hypothesis proposed recently, using different kinds of evidence, by brain and behavioural-science researchers such as Katja Wiech and Irene Tracey (2009) and Eileen Chou and colleagues (2016). Our probit estimates imply that the marginal effect of fathers' MPF is 4 percentage points for dropping out of secondary school and 5 percentage points for obtaining a bachelor's degree. The increases in pain are borne almost exclusively by women. We find that workers strategically adapt their emotional expressions to the incentives they face, and that it indeed pays off to do so. Furthermore, we predict differences in the heterogeneity of behavior and outcomes, depending on the presence of different player types and game structure. Optimal inventory decisions are derived and tested with a laboratory experiment. In a between-subject design we vary the time of payout The decision maker is only informed about the payoff obtained in the past by fellow decision makers who had chosen this action, with no specification of the state of the world when the choice was made.This nature of feedback suggests that decision makers face an ambiguous environment even when a lot of data has been accumulated. The available evidence from anthropology, economics, and psychology suggests that sensitivity to the emotions of shame and guilt varies across cultures.

(2010) and Levy & al. Per mile, these benefits greatly exceed the external costs from car use. While this result is relevant across different estimation strategies, we then describe how high-dimensional estimation techniques can be used to estimate the interactions model based on the Adaptive Elastic Net GMM method. German participants can typically rely on sanctions to significantly increase group cooperation, whereas sanctions are typically detrimental in Russia, because of the high levels of anti-social punishment i.e. We test these hypotheses in a survey experiment performed in Paraguay taking advantage of a rare social uprising following a corruption scandal. models of social preferences and test if the giving decisions are representable by a utility This may be due to favoritism or better information on candidates' abilities. Finally, we find mixed evidence concerning external validity, especially on health and nutrition behaviors. Across our three experiments, greater ambiguity of the visual evidence is associated with more wishful thinking. preferences for the welfare of other species. P: 203-432-3052 | F: 203-432-3296 |, Center for the Study of American Politics, On the Complexity of Forming Mental Models, Impact of Consequence Information on Insurance Choice, American Politics & Comparative Political Behavior Workshop, American Politics & Public Policy Workshop, American Politics Graduate Student Workshop. My results highlight how capital transfer programs can be made more cost-effective by targeting communities at the threshold of the aggregate poverty trap. In our survey experiment, But very little effort has been made to explain what correct reasoning is, or how it leads to the satisfaction of rationality axioms. The available evidence from anthropology, psychology, and economics shows that sensitivities to shame and guilt vary across cultures. Using the 2012 Fornero reform as a natural experiment, a difference-in-differences framework based on a firm-size discontinuity and individual data coming from the Italian Survey on Household Income and Wealth, our results suggest that greater job insecurity reduces consumption and increases savings. Cosimo L. Fabrizio is an Economics & Government major. Using a database of more than 80,000 retail clients, we identify 12,124 matched pairs of spouses (married or cohabiting). Experiments on corporate-tax enforcement, Ellsberg Games - The Strategic Use of Ambiguity in Games. and 127% increase before and after the lockdown). After each match, participants were asked to annotate events which have triggered their emotions in terms of categorical emotions (boredom, frustration, anger, fear, happiness) and the arousal/valence score by reviewing the game recording.

We explore two questions: first, does knowing that they will be acting as role models for future players influence individuals' choices? We combine rich data from surveys and administrative records with an experiment that provided some employees with accurate information about the salaries of others. Our results are consistent with prior studies on the specialization of tasks between spouses and add new insights by showing how individual and couples' characteristics impact the gender gap in financial literacy. International cooperation to supply a global public good like climate change mitigation is more vulnerable to free riding than international cooperation to liberalize trade. In a survey, we ask respondents what time horizons and other individuals they had in mind when answering SWB survey questions, including commonly used measures of life satisfaction and happiness. French lower consumption levels are most likely a result of higher prices for ultra-processed products relatively to less-processed products, the reverse of Anglo saxon prices. Focusing on the (income, life expectancy) space, we show that the equivalent income has fallen by about 60 % in comparison to the pre-conict level. An Experimental Study of the Behavioral Effects of Ethics in the Economics Classroom reports the results of economics experiments conducted with students in introductory economics classes following lectures on ethics. We find evidence that children reduced their sugar intake following both treatments. Nor are the papers results due to unemployed citizens experiencing more pain (although they do). However, in more solidaristic societies, parents may behave cooperatively -- they may optimize according to the Kantian protocol, in which the equilibrium is efficient. through Philippe Ptain's command during the heroic WWI battle of Verdun, though similar Second, those who revealed their temptation through menu choice were more likely to take up the contract and less likely to achieve their goals. In addition, our faculty and students pursue research inmany different areasof economic study. The AR(1) specification is able to correctly discriminate between rational addiction and simple persistence in the data, to test for the main features of rational addiction, and to produce unbiased estimates of the short and long-run elasticity of demand. Yet, workers do not exploit the full potential of the strategic display of emotions. This paper presents a model of discrimination in collective decisions. Yet, research into identity motives has focused mainly on a small fraction of humanity who inhabit Western societies. Rationales to oppose minorities change some peoples private opinions, leading them to take anti-minority actions even if they are not prejudiced against minorities. The empirical evidence also suggests that local economic performance improved in the concerned regions, which includes a faster decline in the unemployment rate. Moreover, women in the former category exhibit a disproportionately large increases in the share of housework they perform after becoming mothers. Despite the importance of the subject, very few studies have been conducted. Initial success is often thought to result in a run of future successes; a phenomenon coined the Winner Effect. Jews and the Resistance, and collaborating economically. We study the use of excuses to justify socially stigmatized actions, such as opposing minority groups. In our model, players contribute to two local public goods for which they have different tastes and sponsor costly links to free ride on others contributions. As such our observations suggest that the level of high-quality information transferred by PCPs depends on an interaction of who benefits from information provision and the payoff relation between beneficiaries and PCPs. or final consequences, and is not able to assign probabilities to all the relevant events? We demonstrate that such indirect spillovers induce persistent effects of institutions. I will present findings from two large studies in which we measured identity motives among >12,000 members of cultural groups spanning 35 nations on all inhabited continents. The effect we find mainly comes from a change in male students evaluation of female teachers. Asking them to rank within their family, colleagues or classmates leads to an average 18% drop in the income share allocated to the richest 1% but has no discernible effect on their taxation preferences. rm that lower job security generates signifi Our data allow us to construct a measure of LTC use (resp. Using functional neuroimaging, we mapped key computational variables in two major brain networks, previously associated with value-based and social decision-making. We measure employee mood at a large In this study, we use panel data from large administrative databases to estimate the economic and mental health impacts of Australian droughts on farmers, other agricultural workers, and their broader communities. This paper considers a stationary model of inventory management in a rich setting in which unsold units carry over, in contrast with the full depreciation of unsold units that is implemented in laboratory studies of the newsvendor problem. Patience and the wealth of nations, The Political Economy of Public Debt: A Laboratory Study, Advertising and price competition in online markets, The Nature and Predictive Power of Preferences: Global Evidence, Does the double dividend of relative auditing exist? The effects are similar across joining Fascist parties, German forces, paramilitaries hunting We show how population structure---size of bands, migration rates, probability of conflicts between bands, cultural loyalty towards parents---shape the relative importance of these motives. While these tools are standard for estimating consumer values of goods and their attributes, they tend to produce dissimilar results since their methodological discrepancies may trigger distinct types of behaviour.

One problem with the Becker-Murphy model of Rational Addiction, at least in the eyes of many public health specialists, is that it does not explain why so many rational, forward looking, smokers should apparently find it so hard to quit, especially since the terminal conditions are part of an intertemporal optimization problem. In this paper we apply techniques of stochastic control theory to introduce uncertainty into the individuals perception of how her stock of addiction will accumulate over time as a consequence of her time path of smoking. We assume that addiction capital is basically unobservable, so she cannot adjust her smoking behaviour according to a feedback policy rule but instead builds uncertainty into her consumption plan from the beginning. We discuss the differences between the equation explaining her lifetime smoking trajectory in the deterministic and stochastic cases, and find that the quadratic utility function which underlies the familiar lead-lag consumption form of rational addiction equation is not, in fact, capable of allowing for the type of uncertainty which we consider here. A possible explanation is that children were restricted access to foods high in sugar in the treated groups. Based on this evidence, we challenge the conventional view that more open electoral systems are necessarily good at fighting corruption. We discuss evidence on the underlying mechanisms, and implications for pay inequality and pay transparency. We find that overconfidence and guilt are typically complementary, whereas shame can be a substitute for overconfidence. empirical and normative expectations play a vast and significant role in compliance, beyond the effect of public good, the latter representing the welfare of other species.

Income, age and household composition contribute to pro-poor income-related horizontal inequity, while regional differences in use, origin and wealth show a negligible contribution. An often, but not widely appreciated assumption underlying theoretical predictions of optimal insurance is that marginal utility of consumption evaluated at any given income level remains constant whether the individual is well or ill. We find that Democrats and Republicans have virtually identical beliefs about behavioral responses to taxation. In the context of a weight loss challenge, I use the menu choice approach of Gul and Pesendorfer (2001) to provide new insights on the link between commitment and temptation. We discuss implications for existing and future work. 579 Jane Stanford Way I examine whether variation in peoples emotions over time predicts changes in preferences. unanimity: the latter two imply a form of dictatorship from humans with the strongest First, recent developments in economic history challenge the standard Malthusian view according to which living standards were stagnant until the Industrial Revolution. Using a new experimental design, we measure individual attitudes towards these three layers of uncertainty and examine the role of each of them in characterizing attitudes towards ambiguity. Whether or not to vaccinate one's child is a decision that a parent may approach in several ways. Timing of selection into motherhood is especially important for young women as a birth can have large effects on human capital accumulation (HC). We find substantial pro-poor concentration of LTC use, only partially offset by poorer individuals having higher needs for LTC. Some life events with impact in time constraint, such as having young children, return to labour activity, or becoming single, are associated higher UP consumption. Participants who are informed that the respondent learned about the study prior to authorizing the donation see the respondent as less intolerant and more easily persuadable. A parametric decomposition reveals that attitudes toward individual risk are moderated by the domain of the outcomes; respondents are risk neutral for individual members of society in the loss domain for health and wealth. Cornell researchers developed a theoretical model that suggests an explanation for ratings produced by firms like Standard & Poors, Moodys and Fitch, or the World Bank. Exploiting fatigue, stress or hunger) can mediate behavioral biases and shape preferences (DellaVigna, 2009). evidence on the link between mood and productivity. our vignette experiment (22% increase in compliance), and even larger in self-reported compliance (76% The articles linked to the presentation: In this talk, I integrate theories from cognitive and evolutionary psychology into classical political science research on the flow of political communication to argue that political news stories that resonate with deep-seated psychological biases will be transmitted more and have stronger impact on citizens political opinions when they transmitted in their social networks. Pre-industrial England enjoyed a level of affluence that was unprecedented in history.

Trading Votes for Votes: A Decentralized Matching Algorithm, The nature and predictive power of preferences: Global evidence We show that while analytical assessment leads to reduced willingness-to-pay for wine, the marginal willingness-to-pay for CSR increases relatively to the other attributes. We establish a theoretical link between three phenomena at the core of behavioral economics: the Endowment Effect, Loss Aversion, and violations of Expected Utility as in the Certainty Effect. In particular, Symmonds & al. Does politics influence citizens willingness to comply with government guidelines that severely restrict their freedom to engage in habitual private behavior? Our within-subject design allows us to detect wishful thinking at the individual level. We vary the level of information about the heterogeneity and about a contributors type between groups. Many political news stories reach citizens via a two-step process, transmitted to them indirectly via their social networks. This paper examines how happy the outcomes of football matches make us. Importantly, while all students eventually benefit from the program, better-behaved and higher-performing students benefit more. Specifically, trading parties face the clarity problem: they need to establish mutual understanding about the content of the relational contract and they need to succeed in adapting this mutual understanding to new situations when the environment changes. From these premises, one might expect that more information and more open electoral systems, that is, systems giving voters more freedom to express their preferences over individual candidates, should help remove corrupt politicians from office. Behaviorally, we show that our model is derived from positing a form of the certainty effect, that we show implies both Loss Aversion and the Endowment Effect. We focus on the children in fathers second families, emphasizing the case in which the second families are nuclear families households consisting of a man, a woman, their joint children, and no other children. Yet, the main driver for within-household UP consumption reduction are prices. P.O Box 208209, New Haven CT 06520 - 8209 Because of the positive externality that each childs vaccination creates for others, the Nash equilibrium suffers from the free-rider problem. I exploit variation in the number of program recipients in a network to identify the location of the poverty trap: the threshold level of capital provision needed at the network level for the program to generate further investment. when empirical and normative expectations of individuals are high, compliance goes up by 55% (relative We develop a theoretical framework to analyze this variation, interpreted as reliance on different psychological incentive mechanisms. Gendered norms have major implications for womens labor market outcomes. We then explore whether and how comparisons with peers or others (i.e. Using a randomized experiment conducted in 97 disadvantaged middle schools in France, we follow 23,000 students over four years to assess the impact of the intervention. science. In this paper we report the results of a repeated experiment in which a central bank buys bonds for cash in a quantitative easing (QE) operation in an otherwise standard asset market setting. Even for simplest, binary decisions, it requires inferring properties of ones environment on the basis of imperfect evidence. His family hasgraciously endowed our department's weekly Macroeconomics Workshop.
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