Aggressively promotingRiley Greenewould add a couple wins to the projections. Huh? Projection systems and all their glory have arrived. With improvements from rookies, and a better FA class, 64 wins to 76 in 2023 is where things start getting interesting. by Handedness, The Lockout Projected ZiPS Standings: American League Edition, The Best Fit for Any Version of Carlos Rodn. The irony in that is, I could make an argument this team has more current question marks than last years team at this point with an unsettled outfield, an unsettled rotation, Ronald Acuna Jr coming off a major injury, same with Charlie Morton, etc. Id also mention that projections in general are typically on the more conservative side, though BPs 98-win projection for the Yankees bucks that trend a bit. This rebuild may still go better than the last one, but theres a lot of work still to do. 
Again, this is just a snapshot of where things stand now and not necessarily season predictions since the moves that come between now and April 7 will change things. dont think Kikucki is still there. Fangraphs has said that their model is hard to use on teams like the Rays. Starting Nine: Will Ronald Acua Jr. catch fire? Though, to be fair, these sorts of projections would be a welcome sight for the White Sox after a brutal 2021 season from Keuchel. Below are the previously released ZiPS projections for all White Sox pitchers and hitters. The AL East is very good, is the main takeaway I think.
Same thing happened w/ the Royals when they were good for that stretch. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted
Regardless of how the rest of free agency unfolds once the lockout ends, these projections are useful as a baseline. There will be multiple updates to those projections this spring because, well, a whole bunch of the offseason remains, far more than is typical when ZiPS makes its appearance in the database. It would make for eight straight years of no postseason baseball for the Halos, and seven straight seasons without an above .500 record. Additionally, most of the core players have yet to reach their prime years which normally results in statistical improvement. I dont count Tampa. ZiPS likes the Tigers in the long-term and Im taking the over on this projection right now but theres still some sorting out to do. Choi and Yandy have both posted solid wRC the last few years. by Handedness. In the West, only the Astros (91-71) look to pose a threat yet again, meaning the White Sox would have the fourth-best projected record in a tie with Tampa Bay. Last year, when PECOTA, Baseball Prospectus projection model, predicted the Braves would only win 82 games, all of Braves Twitter lost its collective mind. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location,
The one thing Im skeptical of is their bullpen. Things have broken right but that wont continue. Be sure to follow us on social media @SoxOn35th for additional updates as we (hopefully) get closer to the season! That will make almost any team competitive (except the Os). Updated: Thursday, July 21, 2022 6:49 AM ET, Park Factors
Things have been breaking right for them more often than not since 2008. they have a top flight front office, a top flight bullpen every year, lots of depth and some excellent young players and the best farm system in baseball theyre going be good for quite a while more. Until we have those answers, we are left with projections based on everyones current roster. FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus unveil 2022 playoff odds, Take a look at the entire shirt collection. Emailed daily. After applying the new strength of schedule calculations based on the other 29 teams, I end up with the standings for each of the million seasons. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. If they have a top flight front office why do they fire everyone every three years. ZiPS doesnt think theyre really just an 83-win team in 2022, but when the prospective schedule is actually simulated, they fall a bit short compared to the divisions top trio. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. The methodology Im using here isnt identical to the one we use in our Projected Standings, so there will naturally be some important differences in the results. They use those projections to calculate how many runs a given team will score and allow over a full season, use that to come up with an expected winning percentage for each team, and then uses that winning percentage and run a Monte Carlo simulation for a full 162 games. See our ethics statement. This is actually much less complex than it sounds. As for the remainder of the American League, the East contains three teams with equal or better projected records in the Yankees (90-72), Blue Jays (89-73), and Rays (88-74). Which teams are in good shape, and which ones still have work to do? We get Spring Training, we get to find out whos in the best shape of their lives, we get random injuries, meaningless stats, trades and signings are still happening, a long-term extension or two, and all the hope you can stand for what might happen in the upcoming baseball season. Thats not because ZiPS doesnt see Correa leaving as a major loss it quite obviously is but the computer is far more confident about the fate of the rotation than it was last year at this time. The Rays front office guys get hired by other teams, The Rays have a super deep team. Its very likely they'll add at least one outfielder and one starting pitcher to the roster, which could move these numbers even more in Atlantas favor. They have trade ammo, a lot of room to add payroll, and a lot of young talent trickling in. The subreddit for the bat-and-ball sport played between two teams of nine players. But for whatever reason, PECOTA has finally started to like the Braves. They have a league average BACKUP catcher. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location,
Even so, its good to take stock of where things stand right now and how much the Red Sox may need to improve if they want to get into the newly expanded playoff field. On their prospect list last year. Both FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus have Boston as the fourth best team in the division behind the Yankees, Blue Jays, and Rays. As it stands, 81-81 sounds about right, but with the potential for more if they continue to add. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted
There's plenty of time to improve our situation, but right now there aren't a lot of people too bullish on the Angels due to the pitching uncertainties. Newcomer Kendall Graveman is not yet in these projections, however which will definitely help the outlook of the bullpen. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. I take the under on Oak, Cle and Bos. Four teams in the division projecting as real contenders has a real effect on the projected win totals versus the overall quality of each team. Assuming they plug those holes, especially in the outfield, Id expect these projections to tick up. This projection does include the addition of Matt Olson but it should pointed out, the Braves arent done with off-season moves. Press question mark to learn the rest of the keyboard shortcuts, When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story. Even with the better showing, Fangraphs projects the Pirates to be the third-worst team in Major League Baseball, ahead of only the Baltimore Orioles (64-98) and Rockies (66-96). Copyright 2021 Pittsburgh Baseball Network and Pittsburgh Sports Now. All rights reserved. The content on this site is for entertainment and educational purposes only. Yet, Fangraphs predicts at all other NL East teams will have improved records in 2022. This article first appeared on FanNation Inside The Phillies and was syndicated with permission. Dont worry, well still lose to you guys in October. With more moves likely coming once a resolution is reached, things could continue to trend upward. Much like FanGraphs, PECOTA really likes the Braves in 2022, which hasn't always been the case. Updated: Thursday, July 21, 2022 6:49 AM ET, Park Factors
If the White Sox also add a quality lefty bat to fill their 2B hole, acquire one in RF and also add another solid SP it will be theRead more , Ill take the over on the White Sox winning 88 games. And two, because fans absolutely lose their minds at these things. Mike Tauchman, Darin Ruf, Kenley Jansen, and Bellinger stoned out of his mind start running through your head. I kind of expected the Rangers to come out in the 76-78 win range, but as it happened, any time the team lost two or three starting pitchers for an extended stretch, the staff projections became a nearly-unmitigated disaster in the simulations. Yankees and Jays down 2 games, Sox down 9. White Sox 12, Twins 2: Robert, Cueto Power Sox to Crucial Victory. Who did they fire?
The roster would have to be injury-ravaged. The projections place the Angels tied for seventh in the AL. Well start with Fangraphs. After finishing 2021 with a .338/.378/.567 slash over 296 PA and 3.2 WAR, Robert is projected to hit .279/.330/.492 over 500 PA with the same 3.2 WAR. So when I see them drop on my timeline sometime around mid-March every year, its an instant click of me.
Of note is that higher-percentile projections already have more playing time than lower-percentile projections before this step. their initial ZiPS AL standings projections. If the White Sox falter for some reason, ZiPS sees the division becoming a much more interesting dogfight. Enter your email address to receive notifications of new articles. ZiPS Simulated Results (Texas Rangers SS), ZiPS Projections American League Central. Their goal this year is to complete 162 games and win some of them. So would finding an actual DH rather than pretendingMiguel Cabrerais still a major league-quality hitter, but I dont really expect Detroit to go that far. If the Halos not only don't make the playoffs but also barely finish .500, many of the above concerns would have had to have come true. It is important to stress that these projections are extremely early, and the Phillies roster, as with every team in baseball, is not yet complete. The teams lack of talent at the major league level cant be rapidly papered over by a few very fun free agent signings. Say it with me now! It was a sight to see. Now on to the projections. Meadows, Arozarena and presumably Margot who himself is an average OF are fine. The Orioles exist. The projections look at Lucas Giolito as the de-facto ace of the staff, with a projected 13-8 record with a 3.36 ERA. Under for Oakland once they make detrimental trades. If a few games go your way you could easily be the worst second place team instead! FanGraphs released its 2022 projected standings. Ill take the over on the White Sox winning 88 games. However, FanGraphs depth charts are showing him as having a 4.2 WAR, meaning theres some room to improve and shatter the relatively conservative numbers. Call 1-800-GAMBLER (PA/IL) or 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN only) or 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA only) or 1-800-522-4700 (CO Only) or TN REDLINE: 800-889-9789. Gambling problem? Since these are my curated projections, I then make changes based on my personal feelings about who will receive playing time, as filtered by arbitrary whimsy my logic and reasoning. With next to zero progress being made between the MLB Players Association and owners, its hard to tell when we might see a resumption of activity. Copyright 2022 YB Media, LLC. ZiPS then automatically fills in playing time from the next players on the list (proportionally) to get to a full slate of plate appearances and innings. The American League Central standings as projected by FanGraphs ZiPS projections system are as follows: Along with the predicted 10-game lead for the Sox, FanGraphs Dan Szymborski had the following to say about the final divisional standings: The Central projects similarly to last year, with two clear tiers: the White Sox and everyone else. The computational algorithms, that is no one is dressing up in a tuxedo and playing baccarat like James Bond. Get the latest news and rumors, customized to your favorite sports and teams.
Spring time in baseball is a wonderful, wonderful thing. That was obvious before seeing the projections, I think, and I still believe the Red Sox have a significant move or two up their sleeve. The Central projects similarly to last year, with two clear tiers: the White Sox and everyone else. I have no idea what the Yankees are doing at this point, but it smellsnot-so-fresh. Rotation is still a concern, but I believe that Ray will anchor them, and Gilbert will build off of his debut. That said, the Sox are still short at least one outfielder and their short-term situation at first base is one of the weakest in baseball.
With no MLBPA members being signed, traded, or even acknowledged on official MLB channels, baseball has nearly entered a state of thermodynamic equilibrium. Rays and Jays both look like better bets to me. First up: the American League East. Ray essentially replaced Kikuchi. Projecting our Opening Day starting rotation during lockout. The former has the gap a little bit smaller, with Toronto out in front with a 92-win projection while BP has the aforementioned 98-win projection slapped on the Yankees. He is followed by Dylan Cease (3.88 ERA), Lance Lynn (3.98 ERA), Dallas Keuchel (4.46 ERA), and Michael Kopech (3.76 ERA) rounding out the rotation. Were all winners this year! It may seem no surprise to see the reigning World Series champion, Atlanta Braves, on the top of the division in these projections. If you dont know, FanGraphs uses both the Steamer and ZiPS projection systems for the individual inputs in their model. You would think they've learned from their mistakes! There are several impactful free agents still available which could have a major impact on projections as time goes on. Click on each image to get a closer look at the numbers, or click here to visit the FanGraphs article containing the original charts. They definitely should add at least one big bat and one more SP. Biggest questions for second half, This Day in Braves History: Hank Aaron hits his 700th career home run. Updated: Thursday, July 21, 2022 6:49 AM ET, Park Factors
Today was that glorious day for two of the biggest sites in the baseball universe, FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus. This is perhaps most obvious in the projection for the Boston Red Sox. Mike Trout Everywhere else on the roster looks passable or above, giving the White Sox a step ahead of where they were last year. Coming off a first-place finish in the American League Central, early 2022 projections are once again looking favorable for the White Sox. Right now, though, there are still plenty of big names left on the free agent market and its fair to say we dont have a clear picture of what the league landscape will look like even by the weekend, never mind Opening Day on April 7. pic.twitter.com/VGyZ92eEiI, Talkin Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) February 6, 2022, Pirates Current WAR Leaders Leave Something to Be Desired, EL Toro Rides Again: Former Pirate Pedro Alvarez Joins the Brewers in Assistant Role. The projection swings arent as wild as they were before the 2021 season, as the depth of the rotation has improved a bit: Boston is slated to start the season with Chris Sale, and both Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford come out with better forecasts than the last time around. Updated: Thursday, July 21, 2022 6:49 AM ET, Park Factors Baseball America just tagged their farm system as the best in the sport. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, by Handedness. As for Baseball Prospectus, theyr projection model is called PECOTA which stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm, as Im sure you knew. FanGraphs projections have White Sox as AL Central Champs, Sox in the Basement Podcast: How Dick Allen Saved the White Sox, All-Star Game Updates: Anderson to Hit Seventh in Starting Lineup, 2022 MLB Draft: All White Sox Draft Picks, Join Our Team New Contributor Application 2022, 2022 MLB Draft: White Sox Select Peyton Pallette in Second Round, 2022 MLB Draft: White Sox Select Noah Schultz in First Round. I was going to ask this in our sub, but a 12 game improvement, while still picking 1.1, sounds good to me. I expect both of those teams to close some ground with the Astros by the time we get to the projections nearer to Opening Day; the Mariners apparently still intend to spend and Oakland didnt have their usual burst of bargain shopping before the lockout froze the offseason. All picks and predictions are suggestions only. Fangraphs released their 2022 projected standings for all six divisions in Major League Baseball, along with each teams record predictions. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Robert is another name where numbers are probably lower than where they should be, again attributable to missing over half of last year with his hip flexor tear. Their entire system is proprietary to their site but as they describe it, its a system that takes a players past performance and tries to project the most likely outcome for the following season. Of course, thats what every projection model attempts to do but all in different ways.
Even with the departure of Carlos Correa, the Astros project at the top the division. It is also worth mentioning that these projections are historically more moderate with team records. For instance, here are two simulations concerning Texas Rangers shortstop results: The result is a million different rosters for each team and an associated winning percentage for each of those million teams. While this is bad for the game and anyone who likes it, it at least makes depth charts less volatile and provides a good opportunity to run some mid-lockout standings. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Sign up and get all of our articles sent straight to your inbox. America's Pastime. Mike Trout's coming back. by Retrosheet. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. If you buy something from an SB Nation link, Vox Media may earn a commission. And thats where all these models are built. Adding Verlander, even with the time hes missed and at his age, provides another boost. So how does ZiPS calculate the season? Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. No one should expect to make money from the picks and predictions discussed on this website. ZiPS then generates a million versions of each team in Monte Carlo fashion. The Phillies only noteworthy acquisition this off-season has been Corey Knebel, and while he can certainly help the team, he won't boost the Phillies to a legitimate contender. By this point on the calendar teams are all but set, with some moves left to be made around the margins but not much else beyond that. ZiPS still likes their front-end talent, but the wheels come off this cart in the simulations where injuries hit. Send an email to soxon35th@gmail.com for review. Jimenez, who FanGraphs Szymbrowski says may have been underestimated due to his injury, will be one of the players to watch as he looks to stay healthy for a full 162. Torontos projection is the opposite, with the tightest bands in the division. They then run the simulation 20,000 times. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. For what it's worth, they appear to own the tie-breaker over the Oakland A's, but that's little consolation. So there you go, if projection models are your thing, thats all good news from two of the biggest sites in the baseball community. In no way endorsed by the Pittsburgh Pirates or Major League Baseball. Additionally, most of the core players have yet to reach their prime years which normally results in statistical improvement. To that end, both FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus unveiled their 2022 playoff odds this week along with their projected standings, and its worth taking a look at them together. Take a look at the entire shirt collection from our friends over at BreakingT, including the one pictured above. Enter your email address to get all of our posts sent directly to your inbox. FanGraphs released their 2022 standings projections on Sunday, which place the Phillies third in National League East with an 82-80 record. While Im more cautiously optimistic than most of my colleagues are about the future of the 2022 season, in the present, baseballs landscape is less about fans huddled around an abstract hot stove and more about the heat death of the universe. So where do they see the Braves for the 2022 season? Lets forget about the eternal void that beckons and get to some projections! other than that I agree with a lot youve said. I start by making a generalized depth chart, using our Depth Charts as an initial starting point. If theyre not your thing then Im not sure why you clicked on this article. It has the Braves with a very similar final record to FanGraphs at 92-70 and even better chances to make the playoffs at 91%. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Over at BP, Boston is actually behind all three of those teams with a 33 percent chance to make the postseason. Still, the division is weak, and it would be dangerous to count the Royals out with such interesting offensive talent in the high minors. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. So in the end, the lesson to me is this: Add more to this roster. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. dark. Starting with the position players, the usual key contributors are predicted to have strong seasons once again. Over for Toronto and Detroit.
The Dodgers are projected for the most wins in the league at 94 with five teams having eclipsed that mark just last season. I am bullish on the Mariners as well. Perhaps unsurprisingly, both systems are mostly in lockstep, at least when it comes to projecting where the Red Sox stand right now. The full projections for 2022 can be found below.
But right now, at least according to the projection systems, they are a borderline playoff team at best.
They have Brujan andJosh Lowe ready and pitchers like Romero, Goss and Steotman in the minors plus Patino and Baz. All starters are projected to have an ERA+ hovering at or above 100 (which is considered league average), with Keuchel the only one falling just below with a projected 99 ERA+. by Handedness. Fangraphs released their initial ZiPS AL standings projections, and the LA Angels are set to disappoint once again if these predictions are correct. We're number 2 of the bottom 6! Yasmani Grandal, Luis Robert, Yoan Moncada, Tim Anderson, Jose Abreu, and Eloy Jimenez are all projected to hit 20 home runs or more in seasons similar to last.
Again, this is just a snapshot of where things stand now and not necessarily season predictions since the moves that come between now and April 7 will change things. dont think Kikucki is still there. Fangraphs has said that their model is hard to use on teams like the Rays. Starting Nine: Will Ronald Acua Jr. catch fire? Though, to be fair, these sorts of projections would be a welcome sight for the White Sox after a brutal 2021 season from Keuchel. Below are the previously released ZiPS projections for all White Sox pitchers and hitters. The AL East is very good, is the main takeaway I think. Same thing happened w/ the Royals when they were good for that stretch. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted
Regardless of how the rest of free agency unfolds once the lockout ends, these projections are useful as a baseline. There will be multiple updates to those projections this spring because, well, a whole bunch of the offseason remains, far more than is typical when ZiPS makes its appearance in the database. It would make for eight straight years of no postseason baseball for the Halos, and seven straight seasons without an above .500 record. Additionally, most of the core players have yet to reach their prime years which normally results in statistical improvement. I dont count Tampa. ZiPS likes the Tigers in the long-term and Im taking the over on this projection right now but theres still some sorting out to do. Choi and Yandy have both posted solid wRC the last few years. by Handedness. In the West, only the Astros (91-71) look to pose a threat yet again, meaning the White Sox would have the fourth-best projected record in a tie with Tampa Bay. Last year, when PECOTA, Baseball Prospectus projection model, predicted the Braves would only win 82 games, all of Braves Twitter lost its collective mind. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location,
The one thing Im skeptical of is their bullpen. Things have broken right but that wont continue. Be sure to follow us on social media @SoxOn35th for additional updates as we (hopefully) get closer to the season! That will make almost any team competitive (except the Os). Updated: Thursday, July 21, 2022 6:49 AM ET, Park Factors
Things have been breaking right for them more often than not since 2008. they have a top flight front office, a top flight bullpen every year, lots of depth and some excellent young players and the best farm system in baseball theyre going be good for quite a while more. Until we have those answers, we are left with projections based on everyones current roster. FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus unveil 2022 playoff odds, Take a look at the entire shirt collection. Emailed daily. After applying the new strength of schedule calculations based on the other 29 teams, I end up with the standings for each of the million seasons. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. If they have a top flight front office why do they fire everyone every three years. ZiPS doesnt think theyre really just an 83-win team in 2022, but when the prospective schedule is actually simulated, they fall a bit short compared to the divisions top trio. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. The methodology Im using here isnt identical to the one we use in our Projected Standings, so there will naturally be some important differences in the results. They use those projections to calculate how many runs a given team will score and allow over a full season, use that to come up with an expected winning percentage for each team, and then uses that winning percentage and run a Monte Carlo simulation for a full 162 games. See our ethics statement. This is actually much less complex than it sounds. As for the remainder of the American League, the East contains three teams with equal or better projected records in the Yankees (90-72), Blue Jays (89-73), and Rays (88-74). Which teams are in good shape, and which ones still have work to do? We get Spring Training, we get to find out whos in the best shape of their lives, we get random injuries, meaningless stats, trades and signings are still happening, a long-term extension or two, and all the hope you can stand for what might happen in the upcoming baseball season. Thats not because ZiPS doesnt see Correa leaving as a major loss it quite obviously is but the computer is far more confident about the fate of the rotation than it was last year at this time. The Rays front office guys get hired by other teams, The Rays have a super deep team. Its very likely they'll add at least one outfielder and one starting pitcher to the roster, which could move these numbers even more in Atlantas favor. They have trade ammo, a lot of room to add payroll, and a lot of young talent trickling in. The subreddit for the bat-and-ball sport played between two teams of nine players. But for whatever reason, PECOTA has finally started to like the Braves. They have a league average BACKUP catcher. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location,
Even so, its good to take stock of where things stand right now and how much the Red Sox may need to improve if they want to get into the newly expanded playoff field. On their prospect list last year. Both FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus have Boston as the fourth best team in the division behind the Yankees, Blue Jays, and Rays. As it stands, 81-81 sounds about right, but with the potential for more if they continue to add. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted
There's plenty of time to improve our situation, but right now there aren't a lot of people too bullish on the Angels due to the pitching uncertainties. Newcomer Kendall Graveman is not yet in these projections, however which will definitely help the outlook of the bullpen. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. I take the under on Oak, Cle and Bos. Four teams in the division projecting as real contenders has a real effect on the projected win totals versus the overall quality of each team. Assuming they plug those holes, especially in the outfield, Id expect these projections to tick up. This projection does include the addition of Matt Olson but it should pointed out, the Braves arent done with off-season moves. Press question mark to learn the rest of the keyboard shortcuts, When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story. Even with the better showing, Fangraphs projects the Pirates to be the third-worst team in Major League Baseball, ahead of only the Baltimore Orioles (64-98) and Rockies (66-96). Copyright 2021 Pittsburgh Baseball Network and Pittsburgh Sports Now. All rights reserved. The content on this site is for entertainment and educational purposes only. Yet, Fangraphs predicts at all other NL East teams will have improved records in 2022. This article first appeared on FanNation Inside The Phillies and was syndicated with permission. Dont worry, well still lose to you guys in October. With more moves likely coming once a resolution is reached, things could continue to trend upward. Much like FanGraphs, PECOTA really likes the Braves in 2022, which hasn't always been the case. Updated: Thursday, July 21, 2022 6:49 AM ET, Park Factors
If the White Sox also add a quality lefty bat to fill their 2B hole, acquire one in RF and also add another solid SP it will be theRead more , Ill take the over on the White Sox winning 88 games. And two, because fans absolutely lose their minds at these things. Mike Tauchman, Darin Ruf, Kenley Jansen, and Bellinger stoned out of his mind start running through your head. I kind of expected the Rangers to come out in the 76-78 win range, but as it happened, any time the team lost two or three starting pitchers for an extended stretch, the staff projections became a nearly-unmitigated disaster in the simulations. Yankees and Jays down 2 games, Sox down 9. White Sox 12, Twins 2: Robert, Cueto Power Sox to Crucial Victory. Who did they fire? The roster would have to be injury-ravaged. The projections place the Angels tied for seventh in the AL. Well start with Fangraphs. After finishing 2021 with a .338/.378/.567 slash over 296 PA and 3.2 WAR, Robert is projected to hit .279/.330/.492 over 500 PA with the same 3.2 WAR. So when I see them drop on my timeline sometime around mid-March every year, its an instant click of me.
Of note is that higher-percentile projections already have more playing time than lower-percentile projections before this step. their initial ZiPS AL standings projections. If the White Sox falter for some reason, ZiPS sees the division becoming a much more interesting dogfight. Enter your email address to receive notifications of new articles. ZiPS Simulated Results (Texas Rangers SS), ZiPS Projections American League Central. Their goal this year is to complete 162 games and win some of them. So would finding an actual DH rather than pretendingMiguel Cabrerais still a major league-quality hitter, but I dont really expect Detroit to go that far. If the Halos not only don't make the playoffs but also barely finish .500, many of the above concerns would have had to have come true. It is important to stress that these projections are extremely early, and the Phillies roster, as with every team in baseball, is not yet complete. The teams lack of talent at the major league level cant be rapidly papered over by a few very fun free agent signings. Say it with me now! It was a sight to see. Now on to the projections. Meadows, Arozarena and presumably Margot who himself is an average OF are fine. The Orioles exist. The projections look at Lucas Giolito as the de-facto ace of the staff, with a projected 13-8 record with a 3.36 ERA. Under for Oakland once they make detrimental trades. If a few games go your way you could easily be the worst second place team instead! FanGraphs released its 2022 projected standings. Ill take the over on the White Sox winning 88 games. However, FanGraphs depth charts are showing him as having a 4.2 WAR, meaning theres some room to improve and shatter the relatively conservative numbers. Call 1-800-GAMBLER (PA/IL) or 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN only) or 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA only) or 1-800-522-4700 (CO Only) or TN REDLINE: 800-889-9789. Gambling problem? Since these are my curated projections, I then make changes based on my personal feelings about who will receive playing time, as filtered by arbitrary whimsy my logic and reasoning. With next to zero progress being made between the MLB Players Association and owners, its hard to tell when we might see a resumption of activity. Copyright 2022 YB Media, LLC. ZiPS then automatically fills in playing time from the next players on the list (proportionally) to get to a full slate of plate appearances and innings. The American League Central standings as projected by FanGraphs ZiPS projections system are as follows: Along with the predicted 10-game lead for the Sox, FanGraphs Dan Szymborski had the following to say about the final divisional standings: The Central projects similarly to last year, with two clear tiers: the White Sox and everyone else. The computational algorithms, that is no one is dressing up in a tuxedo and playing baccarat like James Bond. Get the latest news and rumors, customized to your favorite sports and teams.
Spring time in baseball is a wonderful, wonderful thing. That was obvious before seeing the projections, I think, and I still believe the Red Sox have a significant move or two up their sleeve. The Central projects similarly to last year, with two clear tiers: the White Sox and everyone else. I have no idea what the Yankees are doing at this point, but it smellsnot-so-fresh. Rotation is still a concern, but I believe that Ray will anchor them, and Gilbert will build off of his debut. That said, the Sox are still short at least one outfielder and their short-term situation at first base is one of the weakest in baseball.
With no MLBPA members being signed, traded, or even acknowledged on official MLB channels, baseball has nearly entered a state of thermodynamic equilibrium. Rays and Jays both look like better bets to me. First up: the American League East. Ray essentially replaced Kikuchi. Projecting our Opening Day starting rotation during lockout. The former has the gap a little bit smaller, with Toronto out in front with a 92-win projection while BP has the aforementioned 98-win projection slapped on the Yankees. He is followed by Dylan Cease (3.88 ERA), Lance Lynn (3.98 ERA), Dallas Keuchel (4.46 ERA), and Michael Kopech (3.76 ERA) rounding out the rotation. Were all winners this year! It may seem no surprise to see the reigning World Series champion, Atlanta Braves, on the top of the division in these projections. If you dont know, FanGraphs uses both the Steamer and ZiPS projection systems for the individual inputs in their model. You would think they've learned from their mistakes! There are several impactful free agents still available which could have a major impact on projections as time goes on. Click on each image to get a closer look at the numbers, or click here to visit the FanGraphs article containing the original charts. They definitely should add at least one big bat and one more SP. Biggest questions for second half, This Day in Braves History: Hank Aaron hits his 700th career home run. Updated: Thursday, July 21, 2022 6:49 AM ET, Park Factors
Today was that glorious day for two of the biggest sites in the baseball universe, FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus. This is perhaps most obvious in the projection for the Boston Red Sox. Mike Trout Everywhere else on the roster looks passable or above, giving the White Sox a step ahead of where they were last year. Coming off a first-place finish in the American League Central, early 2022 projections are once again looking favorable for the White Sox. Right now, though, there are still plenty of big names left on the free agent market and its fair to say we dont have a clear picture of what the league landscape will look like even by the weekend, never mind Opening Day on April 7. pic.twitter.com/VGyZ92eEiI, Talkin Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) February 6, 2022, Pirates Current WAR Leaders Leave Something to Be Desired, EL Toro Rides Again: Former Pirate Pedro Alvarez Joins the Brewers in Assistant Role. The projection swings arent as wild as they were before the 2021 season, as the depth of the rotation has improved a bit: Boston is slated to start the season with Chris Sale, and both Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford come out with better forecasts than the last time around. Updated: Thursday, July 21, 2022 6:49 AM ET, Park Factors Baseball America just tagged their farm system as the best in the sport. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, by Handedness. As for Baseball Prospectus, theyr projection model is called PECOTA which stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm, as Im sure you knew. FanGraphs projections have White Sox as AL Central Champs, Sox in the Basement Podcast: How Dick Allen Saved the White Sox, All-Star Game Updates: Anderson to Hit Seventh in Starting Lineup, 2022 MLB Draft: All White Sox Draft Picks, Join Our Team New Contributor Application 2022, 2022 MLB Draft: White Sox Select Peyton Pallette in Second Round, 2022 MLB Draft: White Sox Select Noah Schultz in First Round. I was going to ask this in our sub, but a 12 game improvement, while still picking 1.1, sounds good to me. I expect both of those teams to close some ground with the Astros by the time we get to the projections nearer to Opening Day; the Mariners apparently still intend to spend and Oakland didnt have their usual burst of bargain shopping before the lockout froze the offseason. All picks and predictions are suggestions only. Fangraphs released their 2022 projected standings for all six divisions in Major League Baseball, along with each teams record predictions. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Robert is another name where numbers are probably lower than where they should be, again attributable to missing over half of last year with his hip flexor tear. Their entire system is proprietary to their site but as they describe it, its a system that takes a players past performance and tries to project the most likely outcome for the following season. Of course, thats what every projection model attempts to do but all in different ways.
Even with the departure of Carlos Correa, the Astros project at the top the division. It is also worth mentioning that these projections are historically more moderate with team records. For instance, here are two simulations concerning Texas Rangers shortstop results: The result is a million different rosters for each team and an associated winning percentage for each of those million teams. While this is bad for the game and anyone who likes it, it at least makes depth charts less volatile and provides a good opportunity to run some mid-lockout standings. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Sign up and get all of our articles sent straight to your inbox. America's Pastime. Mike Trout's coming back. by Retrosheet. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. If you buy something from an SB Nation link, Vox Media may earn a commission. And thats where all these models are built. Adding Verlander, even with the time hes missed and at his age, provides another boost. So how does ZiPS calculate the season? Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. No one should expect to make money from the picks and predictions discussed on this website. ZiPS then generates a million versions of each team in Monte Carlo fashion. The Phillies only noteworthy acquisition this off-season has been Corey Knebel, and while he can certainly help the team, he won't boost the Phillies to a legitimate contender. By this point on the calendar teams are all but set, with some moves left to be made around the margins but not much else beyond that. ZiPS still likes their front-end talent, but the wheels come off this cart in the simulations where injuries hit. Send an email to soxon35th@gmail.com for review. Jimenez, who FanGraphs Szymbrowski says may have been underestimated due to his injury, will be one of the players to watch as he looks to stay healthy for a full 162. Torontos projection is the opposite, with the tightest bands in the division. They then run the simulation 20,000 times. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. For what it's worth, they appear to own the tie-breaker over the Oakland A's, but that's little consolation. So there you go, if projection models are your thing, thats all good news from two of the biggest sites in the baseball community. In no way endorsed by the Pittsburgh Pirates or Major League Baseball. Additionally, most of the core players have yet to reach their prime years which normally results in statistical improvement. To that end, both FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus unveiled their 2022 playoff odds this week along with their projected standings, and its worth taking a look at them together. Take a look at the entire shirt collection from our friends over at BreakingT, including the one pictured above. Enter your email address to get all of our posts sent directly to your inbox. FanGraphs released their 2022 standings projections on Sunday, which place the Phillies third in National League East with an 82-80 record. While Im more cautiously optimistic than most of my colleagues are about the future of the 2022 season, in the present, baseballs landscape is less about fans huddled around an abstract hot stove and more about the heat death of the universe. So where do they see the Braves for the 2022 season? Lets forget about the eternal void that beckons and get to some projections! other than that I agree with a lot youve said. I start by making a generalized depth chart, using our Depth Charts as an initial starting point. If theyre not your thing then Im not sure why you clicked on this article. It has the Braves with a very similar final record to FanGraphs at 92-70 and even better chances to make the playoffs at 91%. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Over at BP, Boston is actually behind all three of those teams with a 33 percent chance to make the postseason. Still, the division is weak, and it would be dangerous to count the Royals out with such interesting offensive talent in the high minors. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. So in the end, the lesson to me is this: Add more to this roster. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. dark. Starting with the position players, the usual key contributors are predicted to have strong seasons once again. Over for Toronto and Detroit.
The Dodgers are projected for the most wins in the league at 94 with five teams having eclipsed that mark just last season. I am bullish on the Mariners as well. Perhaps unsurprisingly, both systems are mostly in lockstep, at least when it comes to projecting where the Red Sox stand right now. The full projections for 2022 can be found below.
But right now, at least according to the projection systems, they are a borderline playoff team at best.
They have Brujan andJosh Lowe ready and pitchers like Romero, Goss and Steotman in the minors plus Patino and Baz. All starters are projected to have an ERA+ hovering at or above 100 (which is considered league average), with Keuchel the only one falling just below with a projected 99 ERA+. by Handedness. Fangraphs released their initial ZiPS AL standings projections, and the LA Angels are set to disappoint once again if these predictions are correct. We're number 2 of the bottom 6! Yasmani Grandal, Luis Robert, Yoan Moncada, Tim Anderson, Jose Abreu, and Eloy Jimenez are all projected to hit 20 home runs or more in seasons similar to last.